作者背景 - Ernest Hoffman是Kitco News的加密货币和市场记者 拥有超过15年媒体、教育和文化组织的撰稿人、编辑、广播员和制作人经验[3] - 自2007年开始从事市场新闻工作 在加拿大蒙特利尔创立CEP News广播部门 开发了全球最快的基于网络的音频新闻服务 并与MSN和TMX合作制作经济新闻视频[3] - 持有康考迪亚大学新闻学专业学士学位 联系方式为1-514-670-1339[3]

美联储政策预期 - 预计9月会议将公布点阵图 显示未来三次会议的利率意图 这将是今年最重要的会议之一[3] - 市场普遍预期降息25个基点 但若零售销售数据非常疲弱 可能推动降息50个基点[3][4] - 可能出现双向分歧投票 部分成员支持不降息 部分支持降息50个基点[4] - 若出现降息50个基点的倾向 可能推动市场进一步上涨 表明政策中心转向更早采取更多行动[6] - 联邦基金利率应低于10年期国债利率约100个基点 目前10年期利率略高于4% 意味着政策利率应略高于3%[7] - 未来三次会议累计降息75个基点 将使利率向3.5%靠拢 明年预计还有更多降息[8] 市场表现与资金流向 - 8月底至9月中旬季节性疲弱时期 市场表现异常强劲[2] - 特斯拉单日上涨5% 尽管没有具体消息推动[9] - 年底可能出现追逐行情 机构资金可能被迫跟进AI相关股票[9] - AI及相关股票可能持续强势至年底 因投资者担忧年度业绩表现[10][11] - 若市场预期未来三次降息且明年更多降息 小盘股可能继续表现良好 因其与利率预期高度相关[11] 通胀与经济展望 - 密歇根大学消费者信心数据显示经济走弱与通胀上升的组合[12] - 消费者通胀预期曾跳升至6% 但远高于最悲观预测者的预期[12] - 关税可能引发通胀担忧 但美联储可能将其视为一次性税收增加 不会因此加息或收紧政策[14] - 消费者预期与投资者和企业预期存在差异 不应过度强调消费者通胀预期数据[13][15]

More on the market today. Let's bring in RBC head of US equity strategy, Lori Calvsina. Lori, thanks so much for the time today.I'm sure you've been listening. Is that I mean, is what we're talking about why the equities are sort of looking past what would otherwise be disturbing macro data. No, I I think that, you know, inflation more or less, right.The pressures are starting to build, but they're not out of hand yet. Um, and maybe they won't be out of hand, but, you know, I think that there's a lot that o ...

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around $111,500 on Monday, keeping a tight range as traders weigh macro catalysts for cues on positioning. Ether (ETH) traded near $4,312, XRP (XRP) held $2.96, BNB (BNB) at $880, and Solana's SOL (SOL) climbed to $218. Dogecoin (DOGE) extended its 11.6% weekly gain to 24 cents, outpacing most major cryptocurrencies as the first-ever memecoin ETF looks set to go live for trading in the U.S. on Thursday. The market tone stayed tentative. “Crypto prices treaded water much of the past ...

About this content About Oliver Haill Oliver has been writing about companies and markets since the early 2000s, cutting his teeth as a financial journalist at Growth Company Investor with a focusing on AIM companies and small caps, before a few years later becoming a section editor and then head of research. He joined Proactive after a couple of years freelancing, where he worked for the Financial Times Group, ITV, Press Association, Reuters sports desk, the London Olympic News Service, Rugby World Cup ...