FICC Research FX Strategy 23 September 2025 FX & EM Macro Strategy Quarterly Outlook Is the dollar bottoming out? A potential US growth rebound bodes well for dollar stability and for risk-sensitive currencies that tend to outperform. Risks to Fed independence could derail dollar stability, but gold offers a good value hedge. FX & EM Macro Strategy Quarterly Overview Is the dollar bottoming out?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 A rebound in US activity bodes wel ...

So, do you worry that the Fed will get it wrong. I mean, he he's got some appointments to fill and he and he wants lower interest rates. The president he wants lower interest rates and and I got to tell you, if I were the president, I would let the Fed do their job and I would let the Fed have as much perceived and real independence as possible because the Fed often has to make choices that are pretty painful to make. And if the president's perceived as being in control of the Fed, then what happens when th ...

President Donald Trump’s power grab at the Federal Reserve has sounded alarms across the monetary policy world – but not in one corner of the bond market where they might have made a difference. Investors aren’t pricing in higher inflation for the US, the one big danger that experts see looming when central-bank independence gets eroded. Market-based measures of price pressures are down from July peaks, and roughly in line with their two-year average. Medium- and long-term gauges are within shouting dist ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Tuesday fell by -0.08%.  The dollar gave up modest gains on Tuesday and turned lower as T-note yields fell following dovish comments from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who stated that policymakers are in danger of falling behind the curve and need to act decisively to lower interest rates as the labor market weakens.  Tuesday's weaker-than-expected reports on the September S&P manufacturing PMI and the September Richmond Fed manufacturing sentiment survey also weighed on the dol ...

The US Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, pushed back hard against claims the central bank allows politics to drive decisions, in the midst of an extraordinary battle over its independence.Donald Trump, who is seeking to increase his administration’s control over the Fed, has branded Powell “a very political guy” after he declined to bow to the president’s public demands for drastically lower interest rates.The White House has launched an unprecedented campaign to overhaul the Fed’s rate-setting board of ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is down -0.02%.  The dollar gave up modest gains today and is slightly lower following dovish comments from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who stated that policymakers are in danger of falling behind the curve and need to act decisively to lower interest rates as the labor market weakens.  Today’s weaker-than-expected report on Sep S&P manufacturing PMI also weighed on the dollar.  The dollar initially moved higher today after the US Q2 current account deficit came in smaller ...

Federal Reserve "dot plot" of interest rate expectationsFederal ReserveWhat will the Federal Reserve do with interest rates now that they’ve cut once this year? Will more cuts come or will they hang tight with current interest rates? Fed chair Jerome Powell said, in his post-meeting press conference, that the Fed was not on a fixed course but would watch the data as they emerge. However, we cannot ignore politics: President Trump clearly wants to see lower interest rates.The Fed began interest rate cuts in ...

A feud over the Fed. The Trump administration now turning to the nation's highest court, asking the Supreme Court to allow President Trump's firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The emergency request comes after a Federal Appeals Court in Washington DC rejected the administration's bid to lift an order stopping President Trump from removing Cook from her position over accusations of mortgage fraud.In the meantime, the White House refuses u pardon me, continues to push for bigger rate cuts. Here's s ...

美联储利率决策 - 美联储实施今年首次降息25个基点 但未释放更鸽派展望 引发债券收益率全线上涨[1] - 委员会内部存在分歧 9人认为今年不应再降息 1人反对本次降息 共识度较低[6][7] - 点阵图显示多数官员预期年内还有两次降息 但部分官员认为仅一次或更少 2025年利率预期中值进一步下移[4] 债券市场反应 - 两年期国债收益率因市场重新定价降息幅度而显著上升 信用利差收窄至1998年以来最低水平[1][3] - 10年期国债收益率预计在4.2%-4.4%区间波动 收益率曲线呈现陡化趋势[2][16] - 20年期国债和10年期TIPS拍卖收益率分别创去年10月以来新低及低于预期水平[25] 通胀与就业前景 - 美联储对2%通胀目标持灵活态度 历史平均通胀率为3.3% 当前3%通胀中约30基点由关税因素驱动[14][17] - 劳动力市场供需趋于平衡 八月非农就业数据预期上修 三个月平均就业增长稳定在2万人区间[10][12] - 财政刺激与金融条件宽松支撑经济 消费支出保持韧性 降低经济下行风险[12][16] 信用市场动态 - 投资级债券发行量超预期 高收益债券周发行量达120亿美元 其中DIRECTV单笔发行16亿美元[25][26] - 信贷利差收窄至72基点以下 企业杠杆率保持稳定 再融资主导发行需求[29][34] - 私募信贷竞争加剧 杠杆贷款市场因提前再融资缓解到期墙压力 三重C级贷款利差优势显著[36][38] 企业融资与并购环境 - 并购活动受关税不确定性影响后复苏 预计第四季度至明年交易量回升[30][31] - 企业更倾向股权融资而非债务 因长期借贷成本仍处高位 锁定利率动机不足[33][34] - 花旗与阿波罗合作开展北美直接贷款业务 协同效应初显但面临公开市场融资竞争[39][42]

In a new essay, Minneapolis Fed President Neil Qashqari says he sees two more rate cuts coming from the central bank this year. Steve Leeman joins uh us now with Mr. . Qashqari.Hey, Steve. And hey, Neil. Good morning.Thank you, Joe. Let's bring in Mr. . Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed.Neil, let's talk about your um essay this morning, which is fascinating. And I just want to ask you uh first about one of the things that you say in your piece, which is that you're concerned that there could be som ...