I have a B.Tech degree in Mechanical Engineering from a top school in India. For nearly twenty five years, I have worked in the oil and gas sector, primarily in the Middle East. I work at the intersection of engineering, operations, and project management in an industry that does not forgive mistakes - so I have learned to be efficient, careful, and disciplined. These traits inform my investment strategy. For much of my professional career, I have maintained a serious and sustained interest in the U.S. equi ...

I have a B.Tech degree in Mechanical Engineering from a top school in India. For nearly twenty five years, I have worked in the oil and gas sector, primarily in the Middle East. I work at the intersection of engineering, operations, and project management in an industry that does not forgive mistakes - so I have learned to be efficient, careful, and disciplined. These traits inform my investment strategy. For much of my professional career, I have maintained a serious and sustained interest in the U.S. equi ...

I have a B.Tech degree in Mechanical Engineering from a top school in India. For nearly twenty five years, I have worked in the oil and gas sector, primarily in the Middle East. I work at the intersection of engineering, operations, and project management in an industry that does not forgive mistakes - so I have learned to be efficient, careful, and disciplined. These traits inform my investment strategy. For much of my professional career, I have maintained a serious and sustained interest in the U.S. equi ...

核心观点 - 沃伦·巴菲特的投资理念强调企业竞争优势及其持久性是投资关键 而非行业对社会影响或增长潜力[1] - 维萨公司作为全球最大支付处理商 其竞争优势和持久性体现在网络效应、品牌信誉和业务规模上[2][3][4] - 公司通过自然增长机制实现有机扩张 无需依赖高额客户获取成本或短期激励措施[4] 行业地位与规模 - 全球超过150万家商户接受维萨支付[2] - 支付凭证（包括卡片和数字钱包等）数量超过48亿张[2] - 在截至3月31日的12个月内处理支付交易额约161万亿美元[2] 竞争优势分析 - 网络效应形成双向激励：持卡人因全球受理广度选择维萨 商户因用户基数庞大而接受维萨[3] - 长期市场领导地位构建了安全可靠的品牌声誉 成为企业处理交易的首选[4] - 雪球效应使业务实现有机增长 显著降低获客成本需求[4] 增长驱动因素 - 网络效应持续强化业务壁垒 推动自然扩张[3][4] - 支付凭证规模与商户覆盖形成正向循环生态[2][3] - 交易处理量达万亿级别体现规模经济效应[2]

投资背景 - 拥有机械工程学士学位和25年石油天然气行业工作经验 专注于工程 运营和项目管理交叉领域 [1] - 投资策略受行业严谨性影响 强调效率 谨慎和纪律性 [1] 投资理念演变 - 早期为成长型投资者 现在采用价值与成长相结合的投资方法 [1] - 重点关注企业底层经济性 竞争优势持久性和持续自由现金流生成能力 [1] - 信奉查理·芒格"无为而治"理念 长期持有高质量企业并依靠时间复利效应 [1] 资产配置转向 - 投资取向趋于适度保守 在追求收益的同时更注重风险控制 [1] - 近年来逐步向创收资产重新平衡 包括分红股票 REITs等收益型工具 [1] 行业关注领域 - 长期专注美国股市 特别关注科技 能源和医疗保健行业 [1] - 重视生态敏感型企业的投资机会 强调经济效益与生态责任的结合 [1]

ConocoPhillips(COP)的核心竞争力 - 公司拥有大量石油和天然气资源，即使油价下跌仍能保持可观利润，其宣称已确定可持续开发数十年的经济性资源[1] - 即使在WTI油价跌至40美元/桶时，公司仍能实现盈利性开采和交付，在严峻油价环境中具备显著竞争优势[2] - 低成本资源覆盖国际市场和美国本土，尤其对美国Lower 48地区（包括Permian Basin、Eagle Ford和Bakken页岩区）开发信心更强[3] 同业公司比较 - 埃克森美孚(XOM)计划将盈亏平衡成本降至2027年35美元/桶、2030年30美元/桶，使其在低油价下仍保持盈利[5] - EOG资源(EOG)拥有强劲资产负债表，即使油价低于45美元/桶也能依靠财务实力应对挑战[6] COP市场表现与估值 - 过去一年股价下跌13.4%，超过行业平均9.6%的跌幅[7] - 当前EV/EBITDA为5.26倍，高于行业平均4.93倍[9] - 2025年每股收益预测近7天未修正，当前年度共识预期为6.22美元[11][12] 财务预测数据 - 2025年Q2预测1.38美元（与7天前持平，但较90天前下调26%）[12] - 2025年Q3预测1.33美元（较60天前下调14.7%）[12] - 全年预测6.22美元（较90天前下调21%）[12]