行业与公司 * 行业涉及中国铝业市场 重点关注铝锭和铝坯的生产 库存及表观消费量数据[1] * 数据来源为咨询机构Mysteel 覆盖2025年9月11日至17日当周的高频数据[1] * 花旗最新行业偏好排序为 铜 > 电池 > 黄金 > 铝 > 水泥 > 钢铁 > 锂 > 动力煤[1] 核心生产数据 * 中国铝总产量为852千吨 环比持平 同比增长3% 农历年同比增长3%[2] * 铝坯产量为361千吨 环比持平 同比增长6% 农历年同比增长6%[2] * 日历年内迄今中国铝产量累计3200万吨 同比增长2.9%[2] * 铝坯产量累计1290万吨 同比增长5.7%[2] 核心库存数据 * 铝锭+铝坯总库存为927千吨 环比增长1% 同比下降5% 农历年同比下降1%[3] * 社会库存/生产商库存分别为780/148千吨 环比变化+3%/-4% 同比变化-9%/+15% 农历年同比变化+1%/+17%[3] * 铝锭总库存701千吨 环比增长2% 同比下降8% 农历年同比下降4%[3] * 铝坯总库存226千吨 环比下降1% 同比增长5% 农历年同比增长9%[3] 核心消费数据 * 铝总表观消费量873千吨 环比下降2% 同比增长6% 农历年同比下降1%[4] * 铝锭/铝坯表观消费量分别为892/342千吨 环比变化-2%/-1% 同比变化+3%/+17% 农历年同比变化持平/+5%[4] * 日历年内迄今铝总表观消费量累计3290万吨 同比增长4.7%[4] * 铝锭/铝坯表观消费量同比分别增长4.1%/7.6%[4] 关键洞察与比较 * 铝锭+铝坯库存数据被认为更能代表整体铝需求 因其包含更多铝库存类型变化[5] * 当周总铝库存环比增加 库存水平低于2021-22年及2024年同期 但高于2023年农历年同期水平[5] * 当周总铝表观消费量环比下降 消费水平高于2022-23年同期 但低于2024年农历年同期水平[8] 数据说明与图表 * 所有图表时间轴均以农历新年(CNY)为基准 按周度数据展示[10][11][12][13][15][16] * 包含6个关键图表：铝坯+铝锭总库存 铝坯社会+生产商库存 铝锭社会+生产商库存 铝坯表观消费量 铝锭表观消费量 铝总表观消费量[9][10][11][12][13][16]

[角色] 你是一名拥有10年投资银行从业经验的资深研究分析师，专门负责上市公司、行业研究。你擅长解读公司财报、行业动态、宏观市场，发现潜在的投资机会和风险。 [任务] 你需要仔细研读一份上市公司或者行业研究的电话会议记录，请阅读全文，一步一步思考，总结全文列出关键要点，不要错过任何信息，包括： * 纪要涉及的行业或者公司 * 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 * 其他重要但是可能被忽略的内容 如果没有相关内容，请跳过这一部分，进行其他的部分。 总结时要全面、详细、尽可能覆盖全部的内容、不遗漏重点,并根据上述方面对内容进行分组。 要引用原文数字数据和百分比变化,注意单位换算(billion=十亿,million=百万,thousand=千)。 [注意事项] 1) 使用中文,不要出现句号 2) 采用markdown格式 3) 不使用第一人称,以"公司"、"行业"代替 4) 只输出关于公司和行业的内容 5) 在每一个关键点后用[序号]形式引用原文档id 6) 一个[序号]只应该包含一个数字，不能包含多个，如果多个就用[序号][序号]分开写，不要写成 [序号-序号] 7) 每个关键要点后边的 [序号] 不要超过 3 个 Content: --------- <doc id='1'>China Materials 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series 137 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China – market expectation on demand recovery has been largely cautious. In this note, we enclose weekly data from Mysteel, a consultant, on China aluminum ingot and billet production, inventory, and apparent consumption data during the week of 4th to 10th Sep 2025. Latest sector pecking order: copper > battery > gold > aluminum > cement > steel> lithium > thermal coal.</doc> <doc id='2'>Production – According to Mysteel, from 4th to 10th Sep 2025, China total aluminum production was 851kt, flat WoW, +2% YoY, and +2% YoY on the lunar calendar, and aluminum billet production was 361kt, flat WoW, +6% YoY and +6% YoY on the lunar calendar. The calendar year YTD China aluminum production was 31.1mnt, +2.9% YoY, and aluminum billet production was 12.6mnt, +5.7% YoY.</doc> <doc id='3'>Inventory – According to Mysteel, China aluminum ingot + billet total inventory stood at 914kt on 11th Sep, -1% WoW, -5% YoY, and -7% YoY on the lunar calendar, of which total social/producers' inventory stood at 759/155kt, -1%/-2% WoW, -11%/+43% YoY, and -11%/+20% YoY on the lunar calendar. For aluminum ingot, total inventory was 686kt on 11th Sep, -1% WoW, -11% YoY, and -10% YoY on the lunar calendar. For aluminum billet, total inventory was 228kt on 11th Sep, -2% WoW, +21% YoY, and +6% YoY on the lunar calendar.</doc> <doc id='4'>Apparent consumption – Based on our calculations, during the week of 4th to 10th Sep 2025, China overall aluminum apparent consumption was 895kt, +3% WoW, -1% YoY, and +9% YoY on the lunar calendar. China aluminum ingot/billet apparent consumption was 911kt/345kt, respectively, +2%/+3% WoW, -2%/+8% YoY, and +5%/+18% YoY on the lunar calendar. The calendar year YTD China overall aluminum apparent consumption was 32.1mnt, +4.6% YoY, and China aluminum ingot/billet apparent consumption was +4.1%/+7.3% YoY.</doc> <doc id='5'>Takeaways – We believe the aluminum ingot + billet inventory data is more representative to calculate overall aluminum demand as it includes the change in more types of aluminum inventory. During the week of 4th to 10th Sep 2025, total aluminum inventory decreased WoW. The inventory level was lower than the same period in 2021-22 and 2024, but higher than 2023 on lunar calendar. Total aluminum See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Certain products (not inconsistent with the author's published research) are available only on Citi's portals.</doc> <doc id='6'>Jack Shang, CFAAC +852-2501-2441 jack.shang@citi.com Anna Wang +852-2501-2739 anna.d.wang@citi.com Jimmy Feng +852-2501-7588 jimmy.feng@citi.com Cynthia Wu +852-2868-7813 cynthia.d.wu@citi.com</doc> <doc id='7'>apparent consumption during the week was increased WoW and the apparent consumption level is higher than the same period in 2022-24 on lunar calendar.</doc> <doc id='8'>Figure 1. China Aluminum billet+ingot total inventory CNY (kt)</doc> <doc id='9'>© 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Note: On x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is by weeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel Figure 3. China Aluminum billet social + producers' inventory CNY (kt)</doc> <doc id='10'>© 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Note: On x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is by weeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel © 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Note:OIn x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is by weeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel Figure 2. China Aluminum total apparent consumption CNY (kt)</doc> <doc id='11'>© 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Note: On x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is by weeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel Figure 4. China Aluminum billet apparent consumption CNY (kt)</doc> <doc id='12'>© 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Note: On x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is by weeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel Figure 6. China Aluminum ingot apparent consumption CNY (kt)</doc> <doc id='13'>© 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Note: On x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is by weeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel Figure 5. China Aluminum Social + Producers' ingot inventory CNY (kt)</doc> <doc id='14'>If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designated by "AC" in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple AC analysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than (a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solely with respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts or rating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the report for which they are responsible: (1) that the views expressed therein accurately reflect their personal views about each issuer and security referenced and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates; and (2) no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in this report.</doc> <doc id='15'>IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Analysts' compensation is determined by Citi Research management and Citigroup's senior management and is based upon activities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates (the "Firm"). Compensation is not linked to specific transactions or recommendations. Like all Firm employees, analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall Firm profitability which includes investment banking, sales and trading, and principal trading revenues. One factor in equity research analyst compensation is arranging corporate access events between institutional clients and the management teams of covered companies. Typically, company management is more likely to participate when the analyst has a positive view of the company.</doc> <doc id='16'>For financial instruments recommended in the Product in which the Firm is not a market maker, the Firm is a liquidity provider in such financial instruments (and any underlying instruments) and may act as principal in connection with transactions in such instruments. The Firm is a regular issuer of traded financial instruments linked to securities that may have been recommended in the Product. The Firm regularly trades in the securities of the issuer(s) discussed in the Product. The Firm may engage in securities transactions in a manner inconsistent with the Product and, with respect to securities covered by the Product, will buy or sell from customers on a principal basis.</doc> <doc id='17'>Unless stated otherwise neither the Research Analyst nor any member of their team has viewed the material operations of the Companies for which an investment view has been provided within the past 12 months.</doc> <doc id='18'>For important disclosures (including copies of historical disclosures) regarding the companies that are the subject of this Citi Research product ("the Product"), please contact Citi Research, 388 Greenwich Street, 6th Floor, New York, NY, 10013, Attention: Legal/Compliance [E6WYB6412478]. In addition, the same important disclosures, with the exception of the Valuation and Risk assessments and historical disclosures, are contained on the Firm's disclosure website at https://www.citivelocity.com/cvr/eppublic/citi_research_disclosures. Valuation and Risk assessments can be found in the text of the most recent research note/report regarding the subject company. Pursuant to the Market Abuse Regulation a history of all Citi Research recommendations published during the preceding 12-month period can be accessed via Citi Velocity (https://www.citivelocity.com/cv2) or your standard distribution portal. Historical disclosures (for up to the past three years) will be provided upon request.</doc> <doc id='19'>Citi Research Equity Ratings Distribution | | | 12 Month Rating | | | Catalyst Watch | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Data current as of 01 Jul 2025 | Buy | Hold | Sell | Buy | Hold | Sell | | Citi Research Global Fundamental Coverage (Neutral=Hold) | 58% | 32% | 9% | 36% | 47% | 17% | | % of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients | 36% | 39% | 25% | 39% | 34% | 35% | Guide to Citi Research Fundamental Research Investment Ratings: Citi Research stock recommendations include an investment rating and an optional risk rating to highlight high risk stocks. Risk rating takes into account both price volatility and fundamental criteria. Stocks will either have no risk rating or a High risk rating assigned.</doc> <doc id='20'>Investment Ratings: Citi Research investment ratings are Buy, Neutral and Sell. Our ratings are a function of analyst expectations of expected total return ("ETR") and risk. ETR is the sum of the forecast price appreciation (or depreciation) plus the dividend yield for a stock within the next 12 months. The target price is based on a 12 month time horizon. The Investment rating definitions are: Buy (1) ETR of 15% or more or 25% or more for High risk stocks; and Sell (3) for negative ETR. Any covered stock not assigned a Buy or a Sell is a Neutral (2). For stocks rated Neutral (2), if an analyst believes that there are insufficient valuation drivers and/or investment catalysts to derive a positive or negative investment view, they may elect with the approval</doc> <doc id='21'>of Citi Research management not to assign a target price and, thus, not derive an ETR. Citi Research may suspend its rating and target price and assign "Rating Suspended" status for regulatory and/or internal policy reasons. Citi Research may also suspend its rating and target price and assign "Under Review" status for other exceptional circumstances (e.g. lack of information critical to the analyst's thesis, trading suspension) affecting the company and/or trading in the company's securities. In both such situations, the rating and target price will show as "—" and "-" respectively in the rating history price chart. Prior to 11 April 2022 Citi Research assigned "Under Review" status to both situations and prior to 11 Nov 2020 only in exceptional circumstances. As soon as practically possible, the analyst will publish a note re-establishing a rating and investment thesis. Investment ratings are determined by the ranges described above at the time of initiation of coverage, a change in investment and/or risk rating, or a change in target price (subject to limited management discretion). At times, the expected total returns may fall outside of these ranges because of market price movements and/or other short-term volatility or trading patterns. Such interim deviations will be permitted but will become subject to review by Research Management. Your decision to buy or sell a security should be based upon your personal investment objectives and should be made only after evaluating the stock's expected performance and risk.</doc> <doc id='22'>Catalyst Watch/Short Term Views ("STV") Ratings Disclosure: Catalyst Watch and STV Upside/Downside calls: Citi Research may also include a Catalyst Watch or STV Upside or Downside call to indicate the analyst expects the share price to rise (fall) in absolute terms over a specified period of 30 or 90 days in reaction to one or more specific near-term catalysts or events impacting the company or the market. A Catalyst Watch will be published when Analyst confidence is high that an impact to share price will occur; it will be a STV when confidence level is moderate. A Catalyst Watch or STV Upside/Downside call will automatically expire at the end of the specified 30/90 day period. The Catalyst Watch will also be automatically removed if share price performance (calculated at market close) exceeds 15% against the direction of the call (unless over-ridden by the analyst). The analyst may also remove a Catalyst Watch or STV call prior to the end of the specified period in a published research note. A Catalyst Watch/STV Upside or Downside call may be different from and does not affect a stock's fundamental equity rating, which reflects a longer-term total absolute return expectation. For purposes of FINRA ratings-distribution-disclosure rules, a Catalyst Watch/STV Upside call corresponds to a buy recommendation and a Catalyst Watch/STV Downside call corresponds to a sell recommendation. Any stock not assigned to a Catalyst Watch Upside, Catalyst Watch Downside, STV Upside, or STV Downside call is considered Catalyst Watch/STV No View. For purposes of FINRA ratings distribution-disclosure rules, we correspond Catalyst Watch/STV No View to Hold in our ratings distribution table for our Catalyst Watch/STV Upside/Downside rating system. However, we reiterate that we do not consider No View to be a recommendation. For all Catalyst Watch/STV Upside/Downside calls, risk exists that the catalyst(s) and associated share-price movement will not materialize as expected.</doc> <doc id='23'>RESEARCH ANALYST AFFILIATIONS / NON-US RESEARCH ANALYST DISCLOSURES The legal entities employing the authors of this report are listed below (and their regulators are listed further herein). 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Such research analysts may not be associated persons of the member organization (but are employed by an affiliate of the member organization) and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.</doc> <doc id='24'>Citigroup Global Markets Asia Limited Anna Wang; Jimmy Feng, CFA; Jack Shang, CFA; Cynthia Wu OTHER DISCLOSURES Any price(s) of instruments mentioned in recommendations are as of the prior day's market close on the primary market for the instrument, unless otherwise stated.</doc> <doc id='25'>The completion and first dissemination of any recommendations made within this research report are as of the Eastern date- time displayed at the top of the Product. If the Product references views of other analysts then please refer to the price chart or rating history table for the date/time of completion and first dissemination with respect to that view.</doc> <doc id='26'>Regulations in various jurisdictions require that where a recommendation differs from any of the author's previous recommendations concerning the same financial instrument or issuer that has been

**行业与公司** - 行业涉及中国铝业市场 重点关注铝锭和铝坯的生产、库存及表观消费数据[1] - 数据来源为咨询机构Mysteel 统计周期为2025年8月14日至20日[1] - 花旗行业偏好排序为铝 > 钢 > 铜 > 热煤 > 电池 > 黄金 > 锂 > 水泥[1] **生产数据** - 中国铝总产量为848千吨 环比持平 同比增2% 农历年同比增2%[2] - 铝坯产量为348千吨 环比增1% 同比增3% 农历年同比增2%[2] - 年初至今铝累计产量2860万吨 同比增2.9% 铝坯累计产量1150万吨 同比增5.8%[2] **库存数据** - 铝锭+铝坯总库存883千吨 环比降2% 同比降15% 农历年同比降15%[3] - 社会库存717千吨 环比降1% 同比降22% 农历年同比降23%[3] - 生产商库存167千吨 环比降5% 同比增30% 农历年同比增44%[3] - 铝锭库存655千吨 环比持平 同比降23% 农历年同比降24%[3] - 铝坯库存228千吨 环比降7% 同比增20% 农历年同比增24%[3] **消费数据** - 铝总表观消费量898千吨 环比增3% 同比增2% 农历年同比增7%[4] - 铝锭表观消费897千吨 环比增2% 同比增1% 农历年同比增5%[4] - 铝坯表观消费349千吨 环比增5% 同比增4% 农历年同比增7%[4] - 年初至今铝总表观消费2940万吨 同比增4.8% 铝锭/铝坯消费分别增4.1%和7.8%[4] **核心观点与趋势** - 铝锭+铝坯库存数据被视作衡量整体铝需求的更全面指标[5] - 当周总库存环比下降 库存水平低于2021-2022年及2024年同期 但高于2023年农历年同期[5] - 表观消费量环比上升 且消费水平高于2022-2024年农历年同期[7] **数据呈现方式** - 所有图表均按周度数据呈现 横轴标注中国农历新年(CNY)时间节点[9][10][11][14] - 包含六项专项图表：铝锭+铝坯总库存、社会+生产商库存、总表观消费量、铝坯表观消费量、铝锭表观消费量[8][9][10][11][14]

行业与公司 * 行业为中国大宗商品材料 特别是铝行业[1] * 数据和研究由Mysteel提供 花旗研究(Citi Research)进行分析[1][7][8] 核心观点与论据：生产数据 * 中国铝总产量在2025年7月31日至8月6日当周为846千吨 环比持平 同比增长2% 按农历计算同比增长2%[1] * 铝坯料同期产量为338千吨 环比下降1% 同比增长1% 按农历计算同比增长1%[1] * 日历年内至今中国铝总产量为2690万吨 同比增长3.0%[1] * 日历年内至今铝坯料产量为1080万吨 同比增长6.0%[1] 核心观点与论据：库存数据 * 截至8月7日 中国铝锭+坯料总库存为889千吨 环比增长1% 同比下降20% 按农历计算同比下降18%[1] * 其中社会库存/生产商库存分别为704/185千吨 环比变化+3%/-8% 同比变化-26%/+9% 按农历计算同比变化-25%/+23%[1] * 铝锭总库存为637千吨 环比增长3% 同比下降28% 按农历计算同比下降27%[1] * 铝坯料总库存为252千吨 环比下降4% 同比增长10% 按农历计算同比增长20%[1] 核心观点与论据：表观消费数据 * 2025年7月31日至8月6日当周 中国铝总表观消费量为874千吨 环比增长6% 同比增长2% 按农历计算同比持平[2] * 中国铝锭/坯料表观消费量分别为881千吨/332千吨 环比增长5%/1% 同比增长2%/1% 按农历计算同比增长1%/持平[2] * 日历年内至今中国铝总表观消费量为2760万吨 同比增长5.0%[2] * 日历年内至今中国铝锭/坯料表观消费量分别同比增长4.3%/8.2%[2] 核心观点与论据：关键解读 * 铝锭+坯料库存数据被认为更能代表整体铝需求 因其包含更多类型铝库存的变化[3] * 报告期内总铝库存环比增加[3] * 库存水平低于2021-22年和2024年同期 但高于2023年农历同期水平[3] * 报告期内总铝表观消费量环比增加[5] * 表观消费水平高于2022-24年农历同期水平[5] * 花旗最新行业偏好排序为：铝 > 钢铁 > 铜 > 热煤 > 电池 > 黄金 > 锂 > 水泥[1] 其他重要内容 * 研究包含多个图表分析 涉及中国铝坯料+锭总库存 铝坯料社会+生产商库存 铝坯料表观消费 铝总表观消费 铝社会+生产商锭库存 铝锭表观消费[6][8][10][12][13] * 所有图表数据均按周度并以农历新年(CNY)为基准进行展示[7][9][11][13] * 报告包含大量法律声明和监管披露信息 涉及潜在利益冲突 评级分布 分析师认证和全球监管合规要求[15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23]