Can your retirement portfolio survive two more 2022-esque inflation waves? ...

宏观经济背景 - 宏观经济力量是每个主要市场周期的真正驱动力，而非美联储利率调整或企业盈利 [1] - 当前宏观环境混合了2019年和1974年的特点，包括经济数据疲软、通胀上升和失业率增加，可能演变为滞胀 [2] - 美国最新CPI读数显示通胀率接近3%，远高于美联储2%的目标 [3] 资产表现与市场信号 - 美元指数处于52周低点，表明市场预期通胀将卷土重来 [3] - 黄金价格持续创下历史新高，比特币作为数字通胀对冲工具的表现也越来越像实物资产 [4] - 标普500指数接近历史高点，这与传统的宏观经济行为出现不寻常的背离 [4] 利率政策影响 - 美联储在通胀环境下降息，可能引发所有资产类别在通胀和增长疲弱的实际后果显现前的最后一轮上涨 [4] - 降息往往触发黄金、白银、房地产和工业金属等实物资产的超级周期 [5] - 利率下调会贬值法定货币，推动投资者转向比特币等替代资产 [6] 债券市场信号 - iShares 20+年期国债ETF仅为其52周高点的90%，年初至今表现仅为3.5% [8] - 债券市场不认为降息会降低收益率，反而担心降息会加速通胀 [9] 行业与公司影响 - 稀土公司MP Materials Corp正在上涨，显示出实物资产超级周期的早期迹象 [5] - 比特币矿商CleanSpark被华尔街分析师给予20.50美元的目标价，暗示有83%的上涨潜力 [6] - 若债券市场判断正确，黄金可能突破4000美元/盎司，比特币可能再创新高，但科技股以外的股票可能遭遇阻力 [10]

Key TakeawaysThe Federal Reserve enacted a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut today, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate reduction since December 2024.JPMorgan Chase & Co. announced a subsequent cut to its prime lending rate to 7.25%, effective September 18.DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach supported the Fed's 25 bps rate cut but cautioned about the risk of higher inflation if the central bank over-eases.Gundlach anticipates the yield curve will conti ...

The Federal Reserve lowered rates by a quarter point, but one governor voted for a bigger cut. Balancing persistent inflation and a weaker labor market was "a challenging situation,†the central bank chair said. ...

However, Mr Powell said his colleagues’ forecasts were “subject to uncertainty” and insisted monetary policy was “not on a pre-set path”.Markets are anticipating another couple of cuts from the Fed by the year’s end, with more to follow in 2026. In its statement announcing the September rate cut, the Fed said only that it would “carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks”. About half the Fed’s rate-setters expect another two or more quarter-point cuts this year, taking th ...

美元指数走势 - 美元指数周三上涨0.22% 在从35年低点反弹后出现震荡走高[1] - 美元最初因美联储降息25个基点并暗示年底前再降息50个基点而回落 但随后因美联储主席鲍威尔的鹰派言论收复失地转涨[1] - 鹰派言论指出商品价格上涨正传导至通胀 且预计通胀将持续至明年 这可能限制美联储进一步降息的空间[1][5] 美国住房市场数据 - 美国8月新屋开工月率下降8.5% 至130.7万套 低于预期的136.5万套[2] - 8月建筑许可月率意外下降3.7% 至132.5万套 为55年低点 低于预期的增加至137.0万套[2] 美联储货币政策 - 美联储公开市场委员会以11比1的投票结果决定降息25个基点 将联邦基金目标区间从4.25%-4.50%下调至4.00%-4.25%[3] - 点阵图预计2025年底联邦基金目标为3.625% 暗示今年还将降息50个基点 对2026年底的预期为3.375% 暗示2026年将有一次25个基点的降息[3] - 委员会指出就业下行风险已增加 但通胀已上升且仍处于较高水平[3] 美联储经济预测 - 美联储将2025年美国GDP增长预估从6月的1.4%上调至1.6%[4] - 2025年核心PCE通胀预估维持在3.1%不变 远高于美联储2%的通胀目标[4] 美联储政策评论与外部风险 - 美联储主席鲍威尔表示修订后的就业数据意味着劳动力市场不再稳固 降息至更中性立场将对劳动力市场有帮助[5] - 对美联储独立性的担忧可能削弱美元 因外国投资者可能抛售美元资产 这些担忧包括总统试图解雇美联储理事以及潜在的利益冲突问题[6]

Three years ago this month, inflation had climbed to highs not seen since the early ’80s. The Fed had pushed the funds rate to 3.25%, part of one of its fastest tightening cycles in decades. MarketsJoseph Jones is a professor at The University of Southern Mississippi. He focuses on portfolio construction from a dividend growth investment perspective. The insights expressed in his research are solely his own; they may not represent the views or financial interests of his employer.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we ha ...

**联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）2025年9月会议纪要分析** 宏观经济状况 * 经济活动增长放缓 上半年GDP增速降至1.5% 低于去年的2.5%[1] * 消费支出显著放缓 但企业设备与无形资产投资加速[2] * 住房部门活动持续疲弱[2] * 失业率从低位升至4.3% 非农就业月增幅骤降至2.9万[2] * 劳动力供给下降主因移民减少和劳动参与率降低[2] * 工资增长持续放缓但仍高于通胀[3] 通胀动态 * 整体PCE通胀率2.7% 核心PCE通胀率2.9%[4] * 商品通胀回升 服务通胀继续放缓[4] * 关税政策推高短期通胀预期[4] * 长期通胀预期仍锚定在2%目标[4] * 2025年通胀预测中值为3.0% 2027年降至2.1%[4] 货币政策行动 * 降息25个基点 联邦基金利率目标区间至4%-4.25%[5] * 继续缩表计划 但规模边际减小[5][64] * 利率路径预测：2025年底3.6% 2026年底3.4% 2027年底3.1%[8] * 决策基于数据依赖模式 否认预设路径[29] 风险平衡转变 * 就业下行风险显著增加 通胀上行风险仍存[6] * 政策重心从单边抑制通胀转向双目标平衡[6][25] * 劳动力市场出现"异常平衡"——供需双双急剧放缓[13] * 边际群体（青年、少数族裔）就业难度加大[26][40] 关税影响评估 * 关税推高商品价格约0.3-0.4个百分点[45] * 价格传导慢于预期 中间商吸收大部分成本[46] * 对就业市场的影响可能大于通胀[12] 数据可靠性问题 * 就业数据大幅下修91.1万 回应率低增加噪声[36] * 基准修订显示年初就业市场弱于预期[39] * 依赖修订后数据决策 承认实时数据局限性[37] 结构性挑战 * 全国性住房短缺问题超出货币政策范围[61] * 人工智能可能影响劳动力需求 但程度不确定[44] * 消费者信贷质量恶化 FICO评分降幅为2009年来最大[66] 政策沟通与独立性 * 强调美联储决策仅基于经济数据[34] * 否认政治因素影响 回应关于官员双重角色的质疑[10][48] * 点阵图分歧反映政策两难困境[30][52] * 公众信任度挑战 承诺专注法定目标[49] 前瞻指引 * 未来决策取决于三项关键因素：数据表现、前景演变、风险平衡[6] * 不排除进一步降息 但否认需要大幅调整[15] * 强调政策灵活性 可应对各种经济情景[6]

My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. While the unemployment rate remains low, it has edged up. Job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have risen.At the same time, inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated. In support of our goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interes ...

Schelsey with ABC News. The latest inflation report shows that prices are still going up across key categories for many households including groceries. What will the Fed do if prices pick up more.So our our expectation and you can see this consistently through the year has been that inflation will move up this year but that the the effect basically because of the effects on goods prices from tariffs but that uh those will turn out to be a one-time price increase as opposed to creating an inflationary proces ...