市场表现与展望 - 以标普500指数为代表的美国股市预计将在年内收涨 [1] - 首席市场技术分析师指出，所谓的“圣诞老人行情”今年可能不会出现 [1] - 该现象的缺失可能预示着2026年的市场前景并不特别乐观 [1]

Investing.com -- A chart highlighted by Sevens Report suggests that U.S. stock market gains in December have typically been driven by strength later in the month rather than early trading. The latest Sevens Report states that December has been “one of the stock market’s best months of the year,” citing data from Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick showing the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.4% return over the past 75 years and finished higher 73.3% of the time. That makes December the month with the highest historical ...

Let's bring in Kevin Green, senior markets correspondent, right away to help set up the action today. Uh, all right, KG. So, when I think about yesterday, futures were actually higher, but ultimately we finished lower on the S&P 500.What do you make of all this. >> Yeah, we continue to see a lot of volatility in the market. If we actually look at yesterday before the market opened and even in the overnight session, uh, we did actually see some pressure to the downside.We had buyers kind of stepping in. we o ...

He noted that markets may see some positive momentum into the end of the year, but he doesn’t expect any large swings between now and Dec. 31. “I’m not really counting on much of a Santa Claus rally,” Small said. Canadian investors sifted through the latest data from Statistics Canada on Monday, which showed annual inflation rose 2.2% in November, unchanged from the previous month and a tick below economists’ expectations. While Small didn’t think the data had much of an impact on Canada’s stock market, he ...

Welcome to the Big Money Show. I'm Degan McDow along with my co-host Taylor Riggs, Brian Breberg, Jackie D'Angelus, and with us for this hour, Mr. . Sunshine, Rosecliffe, founder and managing partner Mike Murphy.And I actually mean that. I don't mean that in an Eddie Haskell sort of way. Investors are hoping for a Santa Claus rally to cap off what has been a big year, but keeping their eyes set firmly on 2026.Analysts from America's largest investment banks, banks galore, seeing at least an 11% gain on the ...

市场整体表现与预期 - 周一早盘美国股指期货上涨 道指期货涨0.44% 标普500期货涨0.41% 纳斯达克100期货涨0.38% 罗素2000期货涨0.71% [1][3] - 上周市场表现分化 尽管周三有连续第三次降息 但资金从昂贵的科技股轮动至价值股 [1] - 上周五主要股指收跌 纳斯达克综合指数跌1.69% 标普500指数跌1.07% 道琼斯指数跌0.51% 罗素2000指数跌1.51% [8] - 上周五行业板块表现不一 必需消费品 非必需消费品和医疗保健板块上涨 而信息技术 能源和工业板块大幅下跌 [7] 重点关注个股动态 - iRobot Corp 盘前暴跌81.98% 因公司决定申请破产 关税损害了其利润率 [5] - argenx SE 盘前下跌6.72% 因其甲状腺眼病二期UplighTED研究在无效性审查后终止 [4] - Katapult Holdings 盘前下跌9.12% 此前宣布将与Aaron's和CCF进行全股票合并 旨在组建非优质金融领域的巨头 [5] - MindWalk Holdings 盘前上涨10.73% 公司将于周一发布第二财季财报 华尔街预期其营收为400万美元 每股亏损0.01美元 [5] - AMREP Corp 上周五公布的第二季度业绩令人失望 未达到营收和利润的普遍预期 [11] 宏观经济与政策事件 - 投资者周一将密切关注纽约联储制造业调查结果 以及美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰和纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯的讲话 [2][12] - 根据CME FedWatch工具预测 市场认为美联储在2026年1月28日会议上维持当前利率不变的可能性为73.4% [3] - 10年期美国国债收益率为4.17% 2年期国债收益率为3.51% [3] 大宗商品与加密货币 - 原油期货在纽约早盘交易中上涨0.31% 至每桶57.42美元左右 [10] - 黄金现货价格上涨1.10% 至每盎司4,346.35美元左右 其上次历史高点为每盎司4,381.6美元 [10] - 比特币价格上涨1.90% 至每枚89,848.10美元 [10] 全球市场概览 - 周一亚洲市场普遍下跌 仅马来西亚和泰国基准指数例外 新西兰NZX 50指数收涨 澳大利亚ASX 200指数仍下跌 [13] - 欧洲市场在早盘交易中多数走高 [13] 历史规律与市场观点 - 根据Kobeissi Letter引用自1929年的数据 标普500指数在79%的“圣诞老人行情”期间上涨 平均涨幅为1.6% [9] - “圣诞老人行情”通常指12月最后五个交易日和1月前两个交易日 自1950年以来 标普500指数在这些期间有79%的时间录得上涨 [9] - 该观点还指出 在过去8年中 标普500指数仅在圣诞老人行情窗口期下跌过一次 并预计标普500指数可能在今年年底达到7000点 [9]

市场整体表现与预期 - 周一盘前美国股指期货上涨 道指期货涨0.44% 标普500期货涨0.41% 纳斯达克100期货涨0.38% 罗素2000期货涨0.71% [1][3] - 上周市场表现分化 尽管周三连续第三次降息 资金从昂贵的科技股轮动至价值股 [1] - 上周五主要股指收跌 纳斯达克综合指数跌1.69% 标普500指数跌1.07% 道琼斯指数跌0.51% 罗素2000指数跌1.51% [8] - 市场关注“圣诞老人行情”历史数据 自1929年以来 标普500指数在79%的该行情期间上涨 平均涨幅1.6% 自1950年以来同样有79%的时期录得正收益 过去8年仅下跌一次 [9] - 全球市场表现不一 周一亚洲市场普遍下跌 仅马来西亚和泰国基准指数例外 欧洲市场早盘多数走高 [13] 重点个股动态 - **iRobot Corp (IRBT)** 盘前暴跌81.98% 因公司决定申请破产 关税损害了公司利润率 [5] - **argenx SE (ARGX)** 盘前下跌6.72% 因其甲状腺眼病二期UplighTED研究在无效性审查后终止 [4] - **Katapult Holdings (KPLT)** 盘前下跌9.12% 此前宣布将与Aaron‘s和CCF进行全股票合并 旨在组建非优质金融领域的巨头 [5] - **MindWalk Holdings (HYFT)** 盘前上涨10.73% 公司计划周一发布第二财季财报 华尔街预期每股亏损0.01美元 营收400万美元 [5] - **AMREP Corp (AXR)** 上周五公布的第二季度业绩令人失望 营收和盈利均未达到市场普遍预期 [11] - 追踪标普500指数的SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) 周一盘前上涨0.24%至683.37美元 而追踪纳斯达克100指数的Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) 下跌0.17%至614.65美元 [3] 宏观经济与数据前瞻 - 投资者周一将密切关注12月帝国州制造业调查结果 该数据将于美东时间上午8:30发布 [2][12] - 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰和纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯将于当日早些时候发表讲话 [2][12] - 全周将有一系列经济数据发布 包括美东时间上午10:00全美住宅建筑商协会发布的12月房屋建筑商信心指数 [12] - 市场预计美联储在2026年1月28日会议上维持当前利率不变的可能性为73.4% [3] - 10年期美国国债收益率为4.17% 2年期国债收益率为3.51% [3] 行业板块与大宗商品 - 上周五消费必需品、非必需品和医疗保健板块上涨 而信息技术、能源和工业板块大幅下跌 [7] - 大宗商品方面 纽约早盘原油期货上涨0.31%至每桶57.42美元附近 [10] - 黄金现货价格上涨1.10%至每盎司4,346.35美元附近 其上次历史高点为每盎司4,381.6美元 [10] - 比特币价格上涨1.90%至每枚89,848.10美元 [10]

Slowly but surely, 2025 is coming to an end for investors who should be happy with what markets have produced. The major stock indexes are all higher, although they struggled on Friday after closing at record levels on Thursday. Interest rates have moved slightly lower, partly due to the Federal Reserve's rate cut on Wednesday. The economy has withstood multiple challenges, especially from tariffs. There are some thorny issues that need to be dealt with, but, with one exception, they may not affect mar ...

The S & P 500 ran into a brick wall Friday and finished the week lower, just one day after closing at a record high. The rotation out of tech stocks, which supported the Dow , was on full display. The across-the-board rally on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year was long forgotten. .SPX .IXIC,.DJI 5D mountain S & P 500, Nasdaq and Dow last week For the week, the broad-market S & P 500 lost roughly 0.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.6%, breaking a two-wee ...

市场季节性模式分析 - 所谓的“圣诞老人行情”在本周并未开始 股市的上涨是对美联储降息的典型反应 与圣诞老人无关 [1] - 并非每年12月的上涨行情都可归功于圣诞老人 股市在圣诞节前上涨的几率并不比一年中其他时间更高 甚至可能更差 [2] - 根据图表 道琼斯工业平均指数在12月最后三周每个交易日的平均追踪五日回报率显示 其平均回报率直到临近圣诞节才开始跃升 直到年底最后一周才显著高于平均水平 [4] - 道琼斯工业平均指数的平均追踪五日回报率在12月中旬实际为负值 当前正进入12月中旬时期 季节性几率指向市场在圣诞节前将下跌 [4] 行情驱动因素分析 - 真正的圣诞老人行情直到圣诞节后才开始 其主要原因是 税收亏损卖出通常在圣诞节前后 largely comes to an end [4] - 在圣诞节前 包括本周和下周 税收亏损卖出仍然普遍存在 如果市场顶住了这种卖压而上涨 则与圣诞老人无关 [4] 投资策略观点 - 将每个年底的上涨都称为圣诞老人行情是草率的思维 草率从来都不是好的投资策略 [5]