MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares closed comfortably in the green on Dec. 9 as Bitcoin (BTCUSD) – the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap – rallied ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. BTC pushed past $94,000 this morning as investors grew more optimistic that the U.S. central bank will deliver a “hawkish cut” on Thursday. More News from Barchart Despite today’s gain, MicroStrategy stock remains down over 50% versus its year-to-date high in mid-July. www.barchart.com Is It Worth Buying Mic ...

The Federal Reserve faces an unusually contentious meeting this week that will test Chair Jerome Powell's ability to corral the necessary support from fellow policymakers for a third straight interest rate cut. The Fed's 19-member rate-setting committee is sharply divided over whether to lower borrowing costs again. The divisions have been exacerbated by the convoluted nature of the economy: Inflation remains elevated, which would typically lead the Fed to keep its key rate unchanged, while hiring is weak a ...

The Federal Reserve is poised to deliver its third straight interest rate cut Wednesday, while simultaneously firing a warning shot about what's ahead.Following a period of remarkable indecision about which way central bank policymakers would lean, markets have settled on a quarter percentage point reduction. If that's the case, it will take the Fed's key interest rate down to a range of 3.5%-3.75%.However, there are complications.The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is split between members who f ...

美联储政策预期 - 预计美联储本周将进行25个基点的“鹰派降息” [1] - 预计会议将出现来自双方的不同意见 可能有多达2-3位成员希望维持利率不变 [2] - 若出现上述情况 这将是鲍威尔近8年主席任期内异议最多的一次会议 [2] 美联储领导层变动 - 凯文·哈塞特成为下一任美联储主席的概率高达70% 特朗普表示将在新年伊始宣布任命 [3] - 哈塞特的影响力正在上升 其言论对市场的影响将远超以往 [4] - 如果哈塞特被任命 美联储将成为一个与过去截然不同的“新美联储” [6] 利率政策对经济的影响 - 联邦基金利率在过去75年里通常比10年期国债收益率低约100个基点 目前10年期收益率约为4.15% 这意味着联邦基金利率可能在3%左右低位 [7] - 降息可能不会显著降低长期利率 因此30年期抵押贷款利率不会大幅下降 [7] - 超过15万亿美元的贷款与联邦基金利率挂钩 包括短期借款、汽车贷款、库存贷款、最优惠利率和信用卡利率 降息将通过刺激短期利率来提振经济 [8] 债券市场展望 - 债券市场对降息的反应可能不会太大 长期利率可能不会因此下降 [6] - 近期长期债券收益率上升可能源于两个因素：日本利率达到20或30年新高 以及美国经济表现坚韧 [11] - 尽管存在对巨额债务（38万亿美元）和潜在通胀（3%）的担忧 但市场对哈塞特可能成为主席的消息反应平淡 长期债券利率并未因此上升 [9][10] 对关键人物的评价 - 对美联储理事米伦（Mirin）印象相对深刻 认为其发表了一些不错的论文 希望其能在1月后留任 [4][5] - 认为美联储需要多元化的声音 米伦是其中之一 [5] - 认为凯文·哈塞特是一位优秀的人和出色的经济学家 市场无需对其感到担忧 [11]

Let's bring in Alan's chief economic adviser, former PIMCO CEO Muhammad Alen. It's good to have you take part in in our conversation. And I want to be clear, just because there's a story written that says there are some bond investors who are concerned about Kevin Hasset being the next Fed chair, let's not make it seem like bond investors have lined up down the block to say we don't want this guy to be in in this role.I I get that there are are some according to the sources cited in the in this article, but ...

ADP就业数据与K型经济 - 核心观点：ADP就业数据弱于预期，显示小型企业面临更大压力，强化了当前经济K型分化的叙事[2][3] - 关键数据：ADP整体就业人数为负值，而市场预期为正值 小型企业就业人数减少12万，大型企业就业人数增加3.9万[2][4] 经济衰退与整体就业状况 - 核心观点：尽管经济存在局部疲软，但整体并未陷入全面衰退，失业率仍处于历史低位[6][7] - 关键数据：失业率仍处于4%左右的低位，这被视为充分就业水平[7] 美联储政策与市场预期 - 核心观点：市场普遍预期美联储下周将降息，但可能是一次“鹰派降息”，且2025年的降息路径存在不确定性[8][9][10] - 关键数据：市场预期下周将降息 分析师观点认为2025年可能进行2-3次降息，但也可能少于该次数，因通胀仍高于2%目标[10][11] 债券市场展望与投资策略 - 核心观点：10年期美债收益率可能在当前区间内波动，投资策略建议聚焦于高评级资产和市政债券[12][13][15][16] - 关键数据：10年期美国国债收益率交易在4%左右，当前基准收益率为4.06%[12][13][14] - 投资建议：建议投资者关注久期约6年的基准配置，并聚焦高评级发行人 市政债券因其利息免征联邦所得税，对高税率投资者具有吸引力[15][16][17] - 市政债券优势：经税收调整后的收益率相比其他选择具有吸引力，且信用质量保持相对稳定，许多市政当局流动性状况良好[17][18]