通胀结构分析 - 核心商品价格同比变化为1.4% 这一类别在正常时期通常为负通胀 目前显示出关税的预期影响[3] - 整体CPI同比涨幅为2.7% 被视为一个向好的方向 但需注意其对比的是2024年底美联储加息周期开始时较高的通胀基数[4] - 服务类通胀仍然高企 这是一个与美联储货币政策相关的货币问题 尽管住房成本有所下降 但仍存在来自去年降息周期及后疫情政策的潜在价格压力[5] 关税对通胀的影响 - 关税对通胀的影响尚未完全显现 企业可能在关税实施前囤积了库存 并仍在消化这些库存[7] - 预计关税将在2026年持续推高通胀 甚至可能持续到2027年[8] - 在核心商品通胀的子类别中 能够观察到关税的影响 但这并不一定意味着会广泛推高整体CPI[4] 劳动力市场与货币政策预期 - 劳动力市场略显疲软 月度非农就业增长约为2万人 略低于考虑到移民对劳动力供应影响后的收支平衡点估计[8] - 市场预期下一任美联储主席将累计降息40个基点 但分析认为若此成真 将令任命者失望[9] - 分析预期未来将出现利率下降和通胀上升的局面[9]

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the inflation outlook continues to be more uncertain than usual. "Inflation could turn out to be lower if the rise in US tariffs reduces demand for euro-area exports," Lagarde explained during a news conference in Frankfurt after policymakers left interest rates unchanged for a fourth straight meeting. "By contrast, inflation could turn out to be higher if more fragmented global supply chains pushed up import prices, curtailed the supply of critical ra ...

Join me now take a look back [music] at 2025 and look ahead into 2026. It's Jay Woods, chief global strategist [music] at Freedom Capital Markets, who's got his eye on the ball on what's set to move markets today, the rest of the year, and into next year. So today, let's start out with a look at Micron because I know you were across this one.Um, and I saw what your thought was. A little squeamish given the uh run it's had this year. It delivered a big earnings beat.Oh my gosh. Yeah. >> Uh the stock was alre ...

通胀数据概览 - 11月消费者价格指数环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.7% [1] - 两项数据均低于路孚特调查经济学家的预期，他们预计环比增长0.3%，同比增长3.1% [2] - 核心价格环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.6% [2] 数据细节与背景 - 核心价格数据剔除了波动较大的食品和能源价格，以更好地评估价格增长趋势 [2] - 11月CPI通胀报告的发布因为期43天的政府停摆而延迟，停摆影响了数据收集，导致发布日期从12月10日推迟 [3]

The CPI data release was bullish for BTC — Source: CoinGape U.S. CPI inflation fell to 2.7% in November, way below expectations of 3%. The core CPI also fell to 2.6%, below expectations of 3%. Bitcoin sharply broke above $88,000 on the back of this development. The U.S. CPI inflation came in well below expectations, providing a bullish outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. BTC sharply reacted to the data release, which could pave the way for more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. ...

mezzotint / Shutterstock.com Quick Read Stocks took another beating on Wednesday amid concerns over the AI/Data Center trade. While inflation appears somewhat contained, any spike in the headline number today could send markets lower. Hopes for the “Santa Claus Rally” are diminishing as we enter the home stretch for 2025. If you’re thinking about retiring or know someone who is, there are three quick questions causing many Americans to realize they can retire earlier than expected. take 5 minutes ...

Inflation eased its grip on the American consumer in November, with prices rising 2.7% from a year earlier, the Labor Department said in a Dec. 18 report. The annual inflation rate had crept as high as 3% in September. The slightly lower rate for November reflected smaller price increases for gasoline and new vehicles, among other items. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items and is watched closely by the Federal Reserve, came in at 2.6% in November – the lowest rate since 2021. ...

核心观点 - 美国11月消费者价格指数同比上涨2.7% 低于经济学家预期的3.1% 但高于美联储2%的目标 且与失业率上升并存 为美联储政策带来复杂性 [1] - 前总统特朗普声称其政策正在快速降低物价 但经济数据显示物价仍处高位 且经济学家普遍认为其关税政策推高了价格 [2][5][6] - 物价与失业率双双上升 使美联储在平衡双重使命时面临困难局面 尽管今年已降息三次 但可能暂停进一步行动 [8][9] 宏观经济数据表现 - **通胀数据**：美国11月消费者价格指数同比上涨2.7% 低于9月的3% 也低于经济学家预期的约3.1% [1] - **历史对比**：通胀在2022年6月曾达到9.1%的40年高点 到2024年夏季回落至3% [5] - **失业率**：11月失业率升至4.6% 为四年高点 [4] - **就业数据**：11月经济新增64,000个工作岗位 高于经济学家预期 而10月减少了105,000个工作岗位 [4] - **数据收集问题**：受历史上最长的美国政府停摆影响 10月通胀报告缺失 11月数据仅收集了后半月的资料 [2] 政策与政治因素 - **特朗普言论**：特朗普在公开讲话中声称其正在“非常快速”地降低物价 并将高物价归咎于拜登政府 [2][5] - **关税影响**：经济学家广泛认为特朗普的关税政策导致物价上涨 耶鲁预算实验室估计 即使有关税豁免 特朗普的关税仍将使美国家庭平均多支出1,700美元 [6] - **美联储政策**：美联储今年已降息三次 目前利率区间为3.5%至3.75% 但拒绝了特朗普要求更大幅度降息的压力 [8][9] - **美联储立场**：美联储主席鲍威尔重申致力于实现2%的通胀目标 但承认在劳动力市场也面临压力的情况下 形势复杂且困难 [8] 市场与消费者情绪 - **消费者预期**：密歇根大学消费者调查显示 自今年1月以来 消费者对通胀的预期已大幅上升 [7] - **民意变化**：YouGov/经济学人调查显示 与其他国家议题相比 特朗普在物价问题上的净支持率下降最多 消费者正将物价上涨的责任归咎于特朗普 [7]

Consumer prices rose 2.7% in November from a year earlier, according to a delayed government report, slowing from 3% in September. ...

Inflation pressures eased more than expected in November, according to the latest data on consumer prices published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% over the prior year in November, less than the 3.1% increase that had been expected by economists, according to Bloomberg estimates. On a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and energy, prices rose 2.6% over the prior year in November. Economists had also expected to see a 3.1 ...