A tug-of-war has erupted in the $29 trillion Treasury market between investors who worry that cracks in the labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to dramatically cut interest rates and those who fear that the central bank's fight against inflation isn't yet won. ...

LIVE Dow Set to Open Up as Market Focuses on the Fed Last Updated: 1 hour ago Investors Bet on Rate Cuts as Fed Meeting Looms By George Glover Investors are convinced the Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates when it announces its next policy decision on Wednesday. The only uncertainty is about the size of the cut. Traders are pricing in a 94% chance of a quarter-point reduction and a 6% chance of a half-point cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The market is betting that the Fed will continue ...

市场波动预期 - 期权市场定价显示非农就业报告发布日预期标普500指数波动率为0.78% 美联储利率决议日预期波动率为0.72% [1][4] - 花旗集团分析师指出需非农就业人数减少5万或失业率升至4.5%才可能显著推升波动率 [4] 美联储政策会议 - 市场已完全定价周三会议将降息25个基点 投资者重点关注鲍威尔新闻发布会鸽派或鹰派表态 [3] - 就业数据恶化可能促使美联储加快降息步伐 但短期市场提振可能伴随中期抛售风险 [5][6] 三重魔力日期权到期 - 本周五涉及股票 ETF和指数期权到期规模达5万亿美元 部分观点认为这将清除做市商头寸 [2] - 历史数据显示标普500指数在到期周日内波动率仅略高于后续周 挑战"自由波动"理论有效性 [7][8]

劳动力市场数据 - 8月消费者价格环比上涨0.4% 较7月0.2%的涨幅有所加速[1] - 周度失业救济金申领人数升至26.3万人 创近四年新高 较前值修正后的23.6万人增加2.7万人[1] - 就业数据修订显示2024年4月至2025年3月期间美国就业人数比最初报告减少91.1万人[5] 美联储政策预期 - 市场预期美联储将在9月政策会议上降息25个基点[3] - 投资者定价今年三次降息的概率达76% 因劳动力市场出现裂痕[4] - 经济学家认为降息将源于就业市场恶化而非通胀好转[3] 通胀形势评估 - 通胀仍处于高位且朝向错误方向发展[3] - 尽管存在粘性通胀压力 但就业市场放缓动态使美联储决策复杂化[2] - 经济学家指出当前数据不支持年底前必然实现三次降息的预期[4] 经济前景判断 - 就业市场放缓尚未导致经济硬着陆[5] - 当前经济环境被描述为美联储面临的最糟糕组合：就业恶化与通胀粘性并存[3] - 经济学家认为虽然形势可能恶化 但尚未达到崩溃临界点[5]

Getting a mortgage is rarely a simple thing. - Zak Bennett/Bloomberg News Anxious home buyers are sometimes advised to watch out for the Federal Reserve’s next move. In reality it is the bond market that bears watching closest, and not just plain old Treasurys. Long-term bond yields have been drifting lower because of a host of factors, including expectations that the Fed will soon start cutting interest rates but also rising risks of a recession. Most Read from The Wall Street Journal The correspondin ...

行业整体表现 - 美国建筑材料行业年内涨幅超过23% 显著跑赢涨幅约12%的标普500指数[1] - 摩根大通预计行业股票存在15%上涨潜力 纯建筑类股票价格有望实现20%涨幅[2] - 利率下调预期将降低购房和开发项目的资金成本 从而刺激水泥需求增长[2] 行业驱动因素 - 下半年建筑量预计提升 二季度可能成为需求疲软趋势的底部[2] - 城市化进程加速 基础设施发展和可持续建筑实践推动行业长期向好[3] - 天气因素对比将使下半年数据表现更易呈现改善[2] 个股分析-CEMEX - 分析师给出5.99%上涨潜力 18家对冲基金持有该股票[7][8] - 美国银行证券维持"中性"评级但将目标价上调至10美元和8.6美元 基于2026年预测更新现金流折现分析[8] - 过去六个月股价飙升53% 通过积极成本节约计划和聚焦自由现金流生成实现超额收益[9] - 新CEO重申提升投资资本回报率计划 准备部署20亿美元进行并购以寻求新增长机会[10] 个股分析-James Hardie - 分析师给出36.96%上涨潜力 32家对冲基金持有该股票[12] - 子公司与Green Brick Partners续签独家合作协议 延续纤维水泥壁板和外墙设计解决方案合作至2028年[12][13] - Green Brick为达拉斯-沃斯堡地区第三大住宅建筑商 旗下拥有五家德州住宅建筑子公司[13] - 公司以高性能纤维水泥产品闻名 产品具备防火防水防虫特性 同时生产复合地板和石膏纤维板等建材[14]

Elsewhere, several economic reports in China, inflation data from Japan to the UK to Israel, Swiss export figures and a credit ratings review of Italy may be among the highlights.Central banks in other major economies are expected to maintain a watchful stance but not change rates. That’s the outcome forecast by economists for Indonesia, Brazil and South Africa.The BOE will probably keep rates unchanged after a cut in August that featured a rare three-way split among officials. The BOJ, meanwhile, remains o ...

加密货币市场表现 - 狗狗币价格在过去24小时内上涨7.8% [1] - 纳斯达克综合指数同期上涨0.4% 标普500指数基本持平 [1] 美联储政策影响 - 美联储可能因就业市场显著疲软而降息 [2] - 较低利率通常推高狗狗币等高风险资产价格 [2] 加密货币相关IPO动态 - Figure Technology Solutions IPO发行价25美元 首日交易价达36美元 当前维持在33美元附近 [3] - Gemini Space Station交易所IPO发行价28美元 首日交易价突破40美元 当前维持在34美元附近 [4] - 两项成功IPO表明市场对加密货币投资需求保持强劲 [4] 狗狗币特性分析 - 作为模因币 其价值源于市场情绪而非实际效用 [5] - 该加密货币具有极高波动性和不可预测的价格波动 [5][8] 投资表现对比 - 股票顾问服务历史推荐案例显示：2004年投资Netflix的1000美元可增值至649,037美元 [7] - 2005年投资Nvidia的1000美元可增值至1,086,028美元 [7] - 该服务总平均回报率达1,056% 显著超越标普500指数188%的回报率 [7]

美联储降息政策 - 美联储几乎确定将在未来一周降息 启动宽松周期 [1] - 主要受益方为美国政府 [1]

About this content About Sean Mason Sean Mason is a Senior Journalist at Proactive, having researched and written about Canadian and US equities for 20 years. Sean graduated from the University of Toronto with a BA in history and economics and has also passed the Canadian Securities Course. He previously worked at Investors Digest of Canada, Stockhouse, and SmallCapPower.com. Read more About the publisher Proactive financial news and online broadcast teams provide fast, accessible, informative and action ...