The Fed is tasked by Congress with a " dual mandate " to keep inflation low and employment high using the fed funds rate, which is the interest rate banks charge to borrow money from one another. The fed funds rate affects borrowing costs on short-term loans like credit cards and car loans, and indirectly influences longer-term loans like 30-year mortgages. When inflation is high, the Fed raises the rate to discourage borrowing and cool down the economy, allowing supply and demand to rebalance. When the job ...

But I keep hearing the sword recently, and that's for stagflation. And that's what we're digging into on today's stocks in translation. First, let's get our terms straight.Staglation here means three warning lights flashing at once. Weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation. Stagnation plus inflation.And some folks draw a line between capital S, the 1970s kind of stagflation, and the lowercase S when only parts show up. And since the pandemic, we've really only seen the lowercase kind. ...

经济数据表现 - 国内生产总值呈现过热态势 通胀持续高位运行[3] - 失业率数据表明企业未进行大规模裁员 就业市场保持稳定[3] - 每小时将公布生产者价格指数数据 通胀趋势未朝正确方向发展[8] 货币政策立场 - 美联储对利率决策保持适应性态度 不预设具体降息路径[16][28][30] - 中性利率模型显示约200个基点的置信区间 实际范围在2.5%至3.5%之间[24] - 政策制定更关注经济对利率水平的实时反应 而非单纯盯住中性利率[25] 通胀驱动因素 - 供应商试图转嫁成本上升压力 包括关税和健康保险等多项成本[5][6] - 消费者出现明显的消费降级行为 从品牌产品转向自有品牌选择[7] - 观察到典型的相对价格权衡现象 特定商品价格上涨但不一定导致广泛通胀[7] 劳动力市场动态 - 劳动力供给与需求同步下降 移民政策调整和临时身份撤销产生影响[10][11] - 每年超过130万65岁以上人口退出劳动力市场[11] - 形成低招聘低解雇环境 失业率上升幅度预计相对有限[10][11][12] 企业信心与关税影响 - 企业不确定性迷雾开始消散 更多企业采取行动而非持观望态度[13][14] - 各行业受关税影响程度不同 部分行业获得更多清晰度而部分行业仍面临不确定性[15] - 企业根据对关税范围的感知进行规划 而非每日跟踪新闻动态[14] 生产率与成本传导 - 经济中出现显著的生产率提升现象[10][30] - 生产率提高减轻了成本传导压力[10] - 消费者对价格上涨的抵制行为限制了通胀下行空间[9]

The stock market has notched a remarkable recovery from its early-April lows, delivering healthy double-digit returns in the wake of mounting optimism that stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and Fed interest rate cuts offset tariff headwinds. Major market returns since April 8 lows: S&P 500: 32.7% Nasdaq: 46.7% Dow Jones Industrial Average: 22.4% The rally has lifted the major market averages, including the S&P 500 benchmark index, to all-time highs in September, frustrating many bears who ...

All right, joining us Mark Summerland, Evenflow macro Managing Partner, Doug Holtz Eeken, president of American Action Forum and former Congressional Budget uh office director to distinguished economists and a very distinguished economist, Steve Mein, Dr. . Myron, Professor Myin um a bit of an academic paper, Mark Summerland, but it's pretty good. Basically, it's he's saying first of all, if the Fed is too restrictive, it's going to damage labor market.That's that's the generic point. And he wants to drop t ...

NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday the central bank is in a "challenging situation" with an ongoing risk of faster-than-expected inflation at the same time that weak job growth has raised concern about the health of the labor market. In prepared comments to Rhode Island's Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce, Powell offered little indication of when he thinks the Fed might next cut interest rates, noting that there was danger to both cutting too fast and risking ...

美联储政策立场 - 美联储主席鲍威尔表示劳动力市场疲软已超过对顽固通胀的担忧 导致其支持上周下调关键利率[1] - 联邦公开市场委员会进行年内首次降息 因劳动力供需同步减弱且关税短期影响推高通胀[2] - 当前面临通胀上行风险与就业下行风险并存的挑战性局面 不存在无风险政策路径[3] 经济环境特征 - 鲍威尔描述的状况符合滞胀特征 即增长放缓与高通胀并存[3] - 虽严重程度远低于1970年代至80年代初 但仍对美联储构成政策挑战[3] - 国债收益率小幅下跌 股市对鲍威尔言论反应平淡[4] 未来政策导向 - 美联储对当前政策路径表示满意 但暗示若需要更宽松可能进一步降息[4] - 就业下行风险增加改变了实现政策目标的风险平衡[4] - 当前政策立场仍保持适度限制性 为应对潜在经济变化留有余地[4]

(Reuters) -Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Tuesday if inflation cools off the central bank has some space to cut its interest rate target. “I think eventually, at a gradual pace, rates can come down a fair amount if we can get this stagflationary dust out of the air,” Goolsbee said in an interview with CNBC. In terms of where the Fed can go versus its current target rate range of between 4% to 4.25%, Goolsbee said a neutral rate is something like 100 to 125 basis points lowe ...

I'm not attempting to provide an impossible degree of precision, but a general ballpark. Based on this analysis, I believe the appropriate Fed funds rate is in the mid 2% area, almost two percentage points lower than current policy. The Federal Reserve has been entrusted with the important goal of promoting price stability for the good of all American households and businesses.And I am committed to bringing inflation sustainably back to 2%. However, leading policy restrictive by such a large degree brings s ...

New Federal Reserve official Stephen Miran argued in his first major speech that U.S. interest rates are far too high and risk †unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment†if not reduced substantially. ...