Imagine placing a bet on whether a political candidate wins an election, not in USDC or dollars, but in Bitcoin—and when the bet resolves, you don’t lose your exposure to Bitcoin’s value. That’s the provocative case made in “Bootstrapping Liquidity in BTC-Denominated Prediction Markets.” The paper suggests that for many users, BTC settlement isn’t just a niche preference—it could actually deliver superior economics. The author, computer scientist and consultant Fedor Shabashev, begins with a critique of ...

A new academic paper suggests there’s been a steady stream of “free money” lying around on Polymarket—and smart traders have been scooping it up. The paper, Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets, is the most detailed look yet at how mispricing creeps into crypto’s most popular prediction platform. The researchers combed through a year of data, from April 2024 to April 2025, and found thousands of instances where market prices simply didn’t add up. In some cases, the prices ...

价格表现 - Chainlink价格在9月13日触及25美元 单周涨幅达15% [1] - 价格从22美元支撑位反弹 六日内累计上涨15.9% [6] - 5日与8日移动平均线在24美元形成黄金交叉信号 RSI指标为65显示仍有上涨空间 [6] 合作进展 - Polymarket正式采用Chainlink预言机进行预测市场结算 集成已在Polygon主网上线 [1] - 升级支持数百种加密交易对的安全实时预测市场 降低对社交投票机制的依赖 [2] - 采用Chainlink数据流实现低延迟可验证价格报告 提供近即时结算能力 [4] 市场反应 - 衍生品数据显示未平仓合约维持在17亿美元 日内下降0.02% [5] - 交易量增长7.3% 显示日内投机活动主要来自期货头寸削减 [5] - 市场情绪接近狂热水平 价格在周五新闻公布后初步反映热情 [4] 技术展望 - 若价格稳定突破25美元 下一关键目标位在28美元 [7] - 失守24美元可能重新测试23.30支撑位 跌破该位置将削弱黄金交叉看涨信号 [7] - 关键心理支撑位位于20美元水平 [7]