In the chart below, you have Shiller’s CAPE in red and the CAPE based on forward-realized 10-year earnings in blue.Credit to Jake (@EconomPic on X) for already having thought of this a year ago.In other words, up to 2015, we can calculate a valuation ratio using the average of the next 10 years’ realized earnings to understand whether the market was actually cheap or expensive at the time.While we can’t accurately predict earnings through 2035, we have the ability to go back in time to 2015 and beyond to ca ...

The job market has been more challenging in recent months, but new findings from The Conference Board indicate that job prospects are just as bad now as they were during the pandemic. The board's Consumer Confidence Survey found that 20% of consumers said jobs were "hard to get," which is up from 18.9%. The board acknowledged in its Employment Trends Index that the 20% figure is the highest since early 2021, right when lockdowns limited new job opportunities. Don't Miss: Would You Have Invested in eBay o ...

市场动态 - 盘前期货小幅上涨 但低于经济数据发布前水平 今日开盘前将迎来多家公司一季度财报 包括部分"Mag 7"公司将在收盘后公布业绩 [1] - 标普制造业PMI预计微降至50.6 仍高于荣枯线 ISM制造业指数预计进一步下滑至47.8% 低于前值49.0% [9] - 3月建筑支出预计环比下降0.5个百分点 从2月的+0.7%降至+0.2% [10] 就业数据 - 上周初请失业金人数达24.1万 远超预期的22.5万 创今年2月第三周以来新高 [2][3] - 持续申领失业金人数突破190万至191.6万 为2021年11月以来最高水平 但需观察后续是否会被下修 [4] 公司财报 礼来(LLY) - 一季度每股收益3.34美元 低于预期的3.52美元(-5%) 营收127.3亿美元超预期0.8% 减肥药Mounjaro销售额达38.4亿美元 股价下跌4.7% [5] 麦当劳(MCD) - 每股收益2.67美元超预期3美分 营收59.6亿美元低于预期2.12% 同店销售额跌至5年低点 股价下跌2% [6] CVS健康(CVS) - 每股收益2.25美元大幅超预期31.6% 营收945.9亿美元超预期1.76% 股价上涨8.7% 年内累计涨幅达48% [7] Wayfair(W) - 每股收益0.10美元 大幅扭转预期的-0.18美元(+155%) 营收27.3亿美元超预期0.7% 股价上涨6% 但年内仍下跌32% [8] 即将公布财报 - 今日盘后将公布亚马逊(AMZN)和苹果(AAPL)财报 另有万事达(MA)、安进(AMGN)和Twilio(TWLO)等公司业绩 [11]