Tariffs, tight credit weigh on hiring plans while some channels for rate relief are clogged. ...

Getty Images Consumer sentiment declined in September for most groups, except for holders of big stock portfolios, according to the University of Michigan. Key Takeaways The University of Michigan's widely followed index of consumer sentiment declined in September amid worries about a weakening labor market and stubborn inflation. The survey showed sentiment declined across groups, with one notable exception: holders of big stock portfolios. Worries about the job market and stubborn inflation have m ...

By Michael S. Derby NEW YORK (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman reiterated on Friday that she believes decisive interest rate cuts are needed to ward off rising trouble in the job market. “Recent data show a materially more fragile labor market along with inflation that, excluding tariffs, has continued to hover not far above our target,” Bowman said in the text of a speech delivered before a gathering of the Forecasters Club of New York. Citing many months’ worth of ...

An uptick in consumer spending helped the U.S. economy expand at a surprising 3.8% from April through June, the government reported in a dramatic upgrade of its previous estimate of second-quarter growth. U.S. gross domestic product—the nation's output of goods and services—rebounded in the spring from a 0.6% first-quarter drop caused by fallout from President Donald Trump's trade wars, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The department had previously estimated second-quarter growth at 3.3%, and forec ...

Corrections & Clarifications:  An earlier version of this story misspelled Jeremy Horpedahl's name.   America’s middle class is spooked about the economy. Consumer confidence has been falling for most of the past year. On a closely watched University of Michigan index, consumer sentiment sagged to 55.4 in September, down from 70.1 a year ago. Economic anxiety runs "particularly strong among lower- and middle-income consumers," said Joanne Hsu, director of the Michigan surveys. Another index of consu ...

Dealmaking is picking up, and big firms are hunting for more bankers and senior hires. ...

通胀数据表现 - 8月核心CPI同比上涨3.1% 与预期及7月持平[1] - 核心CPI环比上涨0.4% 高于预期的0.3%[1] - 整体通胀率从7月的2.7%升至8月的2.9%[2] 美联储政策预期 - 8月通胀数据强化了美联储下周降息25个基点的理由[3] - 排除了一次性降息50个基点的可能性[1] - 市场预计下周会议降息25个基点几成定局[6] 劳动力市场状况 - 上周初请失业金人数跃升至26.3万人 创四年新高[4] - 8月新增就业2.2万人 远低于经济学家预期的7.5万人[4] - 失业率从4.2%升至4.3% 6月就业数据下修至减少1.3万人[4][5] 其他经济指标 - 8月生产者价格意外下降 企业利润率受到挤压[3] - 企业选择自行消化关税成本而非转嫁给消费者[3] - 最近三个月就业增长持续放缓[5]

Um, while AI optimism is booming though, there are some concerns about the broader economy. JP Morgan's Jamie Diamond told our Lesie Picker, "The latest jobs data confirms that the economy is weakening, as he put it. That comes as investors turn their attention to a key inflation report tomorrow morning." Joining us now is Pollson Perspectives author Jim Pollson. Jim, we we did get another inflation report though, producer price index suggesting that wholesale prices not surging as much as people feared.So ...

就业数据下修 - 美国劳工统计局初步基准修订将2024年3月至2025年3月总就业人数下修99.1万个岗位 降幅达0.6% 为近年最显著年度校准之一[1][2] - 修订后2024年月均就业增长降至10.6万个 较原报告16.8万个大幅下调 2025年月均增速进一步放缓至4.4万个[3] - 经济学家此前预期下修68.2万个 实际下修幅度远超预期 基准修订通常波动范围仅为±0.2%[2] 科技行业就业冲击 - 信息产业就业下修6.7万个岗位 降幅2.3% 其中2024年3月至2025年3月期间该行业岗位减少8.8万个 降幅达3%[5] - 斯坦福大学研究显示自2022年以来 初级技术岗位因AI自动化导致就业下降13%[5] - 行业涵盖互联网公司 软件出版及广播领域 且就业下滑趋势持续至今年夏季[5] 多行业就业调整 - 休闲酒店业就业减少17.6万个岗位 降幅1.1%[6] - 批发贸易业就业减少11万个岗位 降幅1.8%[6] - 专业与商业服务业（含劳务派遣）就业减少15.8万个岗位 降幅0.7%[6] 经济动能评估 - 修订数据显示经济进入2025年的增长动能低于此前认知[4] - 家庭财富稳健支撑中高收入群体消费 但经济处于非典型商业周期阶段[6] - AI技术应用困境使企业领导者暂缓部署 人类技能成为AI落地的关键补充要素[5]

全球股市表现 - 德国DAX指数上涨0.2%至23,815.68 英国FTSE 100指数上涨0.3%至9,246.59 法国CAC 40指数微升0.1%至7,707.13[2] - 日经225指数上涨超过1%至43,018.75 因日本7月劳动现金收入同比增长4.1% 家庭支出连续第三个月增长1.4%[2] - 香港恒生指数跃升1.5%至25,434.93 上证综合指数上涨1.2%至3,812.51 韩国Kospi微升0.1% 澳大利亚S&P/ASX 200上涨0.5%[2] 美国市场动态 - 标普500指数上涨0.8%创历史新高 道琼斯工业平均指数上涨350点（0.8%） 纳斯达克综合指数上涨1%[2] - 10年期国债收益率从4.22%下降至4.16% 因非农就业数据显示8月私营部门招聘人数较上月减少近一半[2] - 美联储可能因就业市场放缓在下次会议进行今年首次降息 此前一直因通胀担忧维持利率不变[2] 大宗商品与汇率 - 美国原油价格下跌38美分至每桶63.10美元 布伦特原油下跌32美分至每桶66.67美元[4] - 美元兑日元汇率从148.40跌至148.14 欧元兑美元汇率从1.1654升至1.1682[4] 贸易政策影响 - 特朗普签署行政命令实施美日贸易协议 日本汽车进口关税降低[2] - 关税政策此前加剧美联储对通胀恶化的担忧 影响利率决策[2] 经济数据解读 - 日本工资增长支持消费复苏和可持续通胀 ING Economics预计日本央行10月加息[2] - 美国服务业活动报告显示增长超预期 尽管就业数据疲软但未显示经济衰退信号[2]