Claire, >> Claire Jones, Financial Times. Um, given the range of views expressed prior to the meeting, I think there was a lot less descent today than a lot of people expected. It'd be good to know just what you think the drivers were of coming to that very strong consensus in the meeting and also on the flip side to just explain why the dot pot plots are really so scattered between you know someone even expecting rates to end up higher by the end of the year to to five cuts.I mean what were the kind of ran ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Wednesday rose by +0.22%.  The dollar whipsawed higher on Wednesday after recovering from a 3.5-year low.  The dollar initially retreated on Wednesday after the FOMC cut interest rates by -25 bp and signaled another -50 bp of rate cuts by year's end.  However, the dollar recovered its losses and turned higher on hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell, who said higher goods prices are feeding through to inflation and that the FOMC expects inflation to continue to build into next ...

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a quarter percentage point cut in interest rates, it’s first since December, amid a softening of the U.S. labor market. The move was expected. The more pressing question for markets was how many additional cuts to expect. The central bank projected two more in 2025. The Fed’s next two meetings are set for October and December. That would bring the benchmark rate down to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% by year-end. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 465 points on the news. ...

美股指数表现分化 - 道琼斯工业平均指数上涨280.79点（涨幅0.6%）至46,038.69 [1] - 纳斯达克综合指数下跌119.66点（跌幅0.5%）至22,214.30 [1] - 标普500指数下跌8.10点（跌幅0.1%）至6,598.66 [1] 个股表现驱动因素 - 美国运通(AXP)与沃尔玛(WMT)强势上涨推动道指走高 [2] - 英伟达(NVDA)股价大跌2.7% 因中国互联网监管机构禁止主要企业采购其人工智能芯片 [2] 美联储政策预期 - 市场预期美联储有95.8%概率降息25个基点 4.2%概率降息50个基点 [4] - 预计10月及12月会议将各降息25个基点 未来决策取决于经济数据表现 [4] 行业板块表现 - 航空股强势上涨 纽约证交所Arca航空指数攀升1.6% [5] - 电信板块表现突出 纽约证交所Arca北美电信指数上涨1.3% [5] - 银行、制药及房地产板块均呈现温和上涨态势 [5] 全球市场动态 - 日经225指数下跌0.3% 上证综合指数上涨0.4% 恒生指数大涨1.8% [5] - 法国CAC 40指数下跌0.3% 德国DAX指数上涨0.1% 英国富时100指数上涨0.2% [6] - 十年期美国国债收益率微升不足1个基点至4.034% [6]

With all of the confrontation and drama that has surrounded this meeting. They're behind closed doors now. Culturally speaking, can the Fed handle this.I think that the Fed has been put in an unprecedented situation. That said, as you alluded to, we pretty much think we know what's going to happen with the interest rate decision. The Fed has been signaling for quite some time that they were seeing interest rate cuts on the horizon, but not yet.I think markets and the signals we've been getting from various ...

The Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rate cuts this afternoon. ...

By Shashwat Chauhan and Johann M Cherian (Reuters) -U.S. corporate sectors that are sensitive to interest rates will be in focus as the Federal Reserve looks poised to lower borrowing costs for the first time this year, with most having already notched up gains after Chair Jerome Powell hinted at cuts last month. After easing rates by 50 basis points in September 2024 and 25 bps each in November and December, the central bank has held borrowing costs steady at 4.25%-4.50%. Traders have almost fully pric ...

The prospect of interest rate cuts this month and through the rest of the year is elevating prices for gold, but silver is also benefiting. The precious/industrial metal crossed the $40 price mark in the first week of September, which it hasn't done since 2011. Silver is also reaping the benefits of a move into safe haven assets as market uncertainty continues to loom over the capital markets. Stubborn and sticky inflation hints that the economy is still running hot. That also helps silver, since it can mov ...

主要股指表现 - 标普500指数下跌0.15% 道琼斯工业指数下跌0.36% 纳斯达克100指数下跌0.10% [1] - 9月E-mini标普期货下跌0.23% 9月E-mini纳斯达克期货下跌0.16% [1] - 股指早盘上涨后转跌 因零售销售和制造业数据强于预期 [2] 经济数据表现 - 8月零售销售环比增长0.6% 高于预期的0.2% [4] - 8月除汽车外零售销售环比增长0.7% 高于预期的0.4% [4] - 8月制造业生产意外环比增长0.2% 预期为下降0.2% [4] - 9月NAHB住房市场指数维持在32 处于2.75年低点 低于预期的33 [4] - 8月除石油外进口价格指数环比增长0.2% 略高于预期的0.1% [4] 美联储政策预期 - 市场预计美联储将在FOMC会议降息25个基点 [2][5] - 市场定价100%概率降息25基点 5%概率降息50基点 [7] - 预计年底前累计降息68基点 联邦基金利率降至3.65% [7] - 弱劳动力市场数据和受控的通胀报告支撑降息预期 [5] 个股表现 - 芯片股领涨科技板块 安森美半导体上涨超过2% [13] - 英特尔、阿斯麦、高通和微芯科技上涨超过1% [13] - 能源股表现强劲 APA公司上涨超过4% 戴蒙德巴克能源上涨超过2% [14] - 德文能源、西方石油和瓦莱罗能源上涨超过2% [14] - Webtoon娱乐上涨超过27% 因迪士尼计划收购2%股权 [15] - 布鲁姆能源上涨超过6% 因摩根士丹利上调目标价至85美元 [15] - 钢铁动力上涨超过5% 因三季度EPS预测优于预期 [15] - 弗格森企业上涨超过5% 因四季度营收85亿美元超预期 [16] - 甲骨文上涨超过2% 因参与TikTok运营协议 [16] - 好时上涨超过2% 因高盛上调评级至买入 [16] - 墨式烧烤上涨超过1% 因批准5亿美元股票回购 [17] - 戴夫与巴斯特娱乐下跌超过16% 因二季度EPS远低于预期 [17] - 火箭实验室下跌超过9% 因计划发行7.5亿美元股票 [17] - 华纳兄弟探索下跌超过8% 因遭TD Cowen下调评级 [18] - 埃佛勒斯集团下跌超过2% 因获Underperform初始评级 [19] - 纽约时报下跌超过2% 因面临特朗普诽谤诉讼 [19] - 拉夫劳伦下跌超过1% 因销售增长预期放缓 [19] 债券市场 - 10年期国债收益率下降0.2基点至4.036% [9] - 国债早盘下跌后转涨 因股市回落和美联储降息预期 [9] - 财政部将拍卖130亿美元20年期国债 [10] - 10年期德国国债收益率上升0.8基点至2.699% [11] - 10年期英国国债收益率上升2.2基点至4.655% [11] 海外市场 - 欧洲斯托克50指数下跌0.86% [8] - 上证综合指数收盘上涨0.04% [8] - 日经225指数上涨0.30% 创历史新高 [8] - 欧元区7月工业生产环比增长0.3% 低于预期的0.4% [11] - 欧元区二季度劳动力成本同比增长3.6% [11] - 德国9月ZEW经济预期指数意外上升2.6至37.3 [12] - 市场预计ECB下次会议降息25基点概率仅2% [12] 行业动态 - 半导体股上涨支撑整体市场 [3] - 能源股随WTI原油价格上涨超过1%而走高 [14] - 科技股受芯片制造商走强带动 [13]

美联储资产负债表政策对抵押贷款利率的影响 - 太平洋投资管理公司建议美联储停止缩减抵押贷款持有规模以提振美国住房市场[1] - 自2022年启动加息周期以来 美联储通过量化紧缩使抵押贷款支持证券的本金和利息支付自然缩减而不进行再投资[1] 抵押贷款利差与利率现状 - 抵押贷款利差（国债收益率与抵押贷款利率之差）在过去三年保持"异常宽泛"水平[2] - 截至周五抵押贷款利差维持在约230个基点的历史高位水平[2] - 这导致30年期抵押贷款平均利率高达6.35% 该品种为美国最普遍的住房贷款类型[2] 政策调整方案及潜在影响 - 再投资MBS本金利息支付对降低抵押贷款利率的效果可能不亚于降息[3] - 在利率政策面临政治压力且通胀持续粘性的周期中 该措施可能成为最有效的宽松工具[3] - 方案一：再投资当前每月约180亿美元的MBS自然缩减额度 预计可降低抵押贷款利率20-30个基点[4] - 该方案相当于100个基点联邦基金利率下调的历史效果[4] - 方案二：再投资自然缩减额度并出售200-300亿美元MBS进行再投资 预计可降低利率40-50个基点[5] - 两种方案都比市场普遍预期的降息更能有效降低抵押贷款利率[5] 维持现状的潜在后果 - 若美联储延续当前政策 抵押贷款利率预计将保持高位直至2026年[6] - 这将使住房所有权成为仅限于富裕阶层的奢侈品[6]