The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.13 %.  The dollar is under pressure today on the likelihood of a government shutdown on Wednesday.  Also, lower T-note yields today have weakened the dollar's interest rate differentials.  In addition, comments today from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson hint at the possibility of stagflation and were bearish for the dollar, as he warned that he sees a softening labor market and increasing inflation pressures.  Finally, the larger-than-expected decline in the Con ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.29%.  The dollar is sliding today on speculation that weak US labor market news this week, including the August JOLTS job openings, the September ADP employment change, and the September nonfarm payrolls, will prompt the Fed to continue cutting interest rates.  Also, the looming risk of a US government shutdown on Wednesday is weighing on market sentiment toward the dollar.  The dollar recovered from its worst level after Aug pending home sales rose more than ex ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.43% at a 3-week high.  The dollar is climbing as today’s US economic reports were hawkish for Fed policy.  US Q2 GDP expanded more than expected, weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a 2-month low, and August core (ex-defense and aircraft) capital goods new orders rose more than expected.  Also, today's weakness in stocks boosted some liquidity demand for the dollar.  The dollar added to its gains today on hawkish comments from Kansas City Fed President Jeff ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Wednesday rose by +0.65% and posted a 1.5-week high.  The dollar rose on Wednesday, with positive carryover from Tuesday, when Fed Chair Powell offered no hints on whether he would support a rate cut at next month's FOMC meeting, signaling that the Fed may be less dovish than the markets have currently priced in.  Also, hawkish comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee supported the dollar when he said he could be less willing to support further Fed rate cuts.  The dol ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.63% at a 1.5-week high. The dollar is climbing today on positive carryover from Tuesday when Fed Chair Powell offered no hints on whether he would support a rate cut at next month's FOMC meeting, signaling the Fed may be less dovish than the markets have currently priced in.  Also, weakness in EUR/USD today is supportive for the dollar after a gauge of German business confidence unexpectedly declined.  The dollar extended its gains today after US Aug new home sale ...

美元指数表现及驱动因素 - 美元指数周四上涨0.50% 受美联储主席鲍威尔言论提振 其表示商品价格上涨正传导至通胀 且FOMC预计通胀将持续至明年 这可能限制美联储进一步降息的空间[1] - 美元涨幅扩大 因美国当周初请失业金人数下降超预期且9月费城联储商业展望调查升至8个月高点 推动国债收益率上升 对美联储政策构成鹰派因素[1] - 市场目前定价10月28-29日FOMC会议再次降息25个基点的概率为93%[4] 美元面临的风险 - 对美联储独立性的担忧可能削弱美元 因特朗普总统试图解雇美联储理事Cook以及Stephen Miran在仍担任白宫经济顾问委员会职务时有意成为美联储理事[2] 关键经济数据 - 美国当周初请失业金人数减少3.3万人至23.1万人 显示劳动力市场强于预期的24万人[3] - 美国9月费城联储商业展望调查上升23.5点至23.2的8个月高点 远强于预期的1.7[3] - 美国8月领先指标环比下降0.5% 弱于预期的下降0.2% 为四个月来最大降幅[3] 欧元兑美元表现及驱动因素 - 欧元兑美元周四下跌0.20% 受美元走强打压[4] - 财政担忧施压欧元 因德国政府表示第四季度借款将比原计划增加约20% 以资助基础设施和武装部队支出激增[4] - 德国财政机构计划在第四季度筹集905亿欧元（1070亿美元） 比12月预测多150亿欧元[5] 欧元跌幅受限的原因 - 欧元跌幅受限因央行政策分化 市场认为ECB基本结束降息周期 而美联储预计年底前还将降息约两次[5] - 掉期市场定价ECB在10月30日政策会议上降息25个基点的概率仅为2%[6] 美元兑日元表现及驱动因素 - 美元兑日元周四上涨0.59% 日元跌至1周低点 受美元走强打压[6] - 日经指数周四飙升至新纪录高点 降低了日元的避险需求[6] - 日元跌幅加速 因周四美国经济数据强于预期推高了国债收益率[6]

美元指数表现及影响因素 - 美元指数下跌0.42%至2.25个月低点 因市场预期美联储将在本周会议降息25个基点且年底前持续宽松[1] - 美元抛压部分受零售销售数据强劲缓冲 8月零售销售环比增长0.6%超预期0.2% 剔除汽车后增长0.7%超预期0.4%[1][3] - 制造业生产意外环比增长0.2% 市场预期为下降0.2% 进口价格指数剔除石油后环比增长0.2%超预期0.1%[1][3] 美联储政策预期 - 市场定价本周FOMC会议降息25基点概率达100% 降息50基点概率为5%[5] - 预计10月会议再次降息25基点概率为84% 年底前联邦基金利率累计下降69基点至3.64%[5] - 政治因素影响美联储独立性 特朗普试图解雇理事库克及官员双重任职问题引发外资抛售美元资产担忧[2] 欧元汇率走势 - 欧元兑美元上涨0.69%至4年新高 受美元走弱及央行政策分化推动[6] - 市场认为欧洲央行基本结束降息周期 而美联储预计年内降息约三次[6] - 欧央行理事西姆库斯鹰派言论强化汇率支撑 称已接近降息周期尾声[6] 经济数据表现 - 美国9月NAHB住房市场指数维持在32 处于2.75年低点且低于预期值33[4] - 欧元区Q2劳动力成本环比上升 德国9月ZEW经济预期意外改善[7] - 欧元区7月工业产出增速低于预期 对欧元形成部分压制[7]

`` The dollar index (DXY00) on Monday fell by -0.27%.  The dollar was under pressure on Monday as the Fed is expected to cut the fed funds target range by -25 bp at the conclusion of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting.  Also, Monday's rally in the S&P to a new record high has dampened liquidity demand for the dollar.  In addition, increased expectations for Fed easing through year-end are bearish for the dollar.  The dollar added to its losses Monday after the US Sep Empire manufacturing survey of general business co ...

美元指数表现及压力因素 - 美元指数(DXY00)下跌0.11% 受美联储降息预期和标普指数创新高影响[1] - 美联储预计在FOMC会议降息25个基点 市场预期年底前累计降息70个基点至3.63%[1][4] - 美国9月帝国制造业指数超预期下跌20.6点至三个月低点-8.7 远低于预期的5.0[1][3] 美元面临的政治风险 - 特朗普试图解雇美联储理事Cook引发对美联储独立性的担忧[2] - Stephen Miran在保留白宫职位同时寻求美联储理事职务引发争议[2] 欧元兑美元表现 - 欧元兑美元(EUR/USD)上涨0.17% 受益于美元走弱和欧央行鹰派言论[5] - 欧央行理事Kocher表示接近结束降息周期 与美联储政策分化形成支撑[5] 欧元面临的阻力因素 - 德国8月批发价格指数创一年最大跌幅 对欧央行政策构成鸽派影响[6] - 惠誉下调法国信用评级对欧元形成压力[6] - 俄罗斯称与乌克兰谈判"暂停" 俄乌战争持续迹象拖累欧元[6]

美元指数表现及影响因素 - 美元指数DXY00下跌0.16% 因债券收益率下降和弱于预期的PPI数据导致美元放弃早盘涨幅转跌 [1] - 美元早盘一度走强 因地缘政治风险升级推升避险需求 波兰击落进入其领空的俄罗斯无人机 [1] - 美元上行受限制 因市场对美联储年底前放松政策的预期增强 且对美联储独立性的担忧令外国投资者可能抛售美元资产 [2] 生产者价格指数PPI数据 - 美国8月最终需求PPI同比上涨2.6% 较7月的3.1%放缓 且低于预期的3.3% [3] - 8月核心PPI除食品和能源同比上涨2.8% 较7月的3.4%放缓 且低于预期的3.5% [3] 美联储利率政策预期 - 市场定价9月16-17日FOMC会议100%概率降息25基点 14%概率降息50基点 [4] - 市场预计10月28-29日会议有76%概率进行第二次25基点降息 [4] - 预计到年底联邦基金利率总体下调74基点 从当前4.38%降至3.64% [4] 欧元兑美元汇率变动 - EUR/USD上涨0.15% 因美元走弱和弱于预期的美国PPI数据支撑欧元从早盘损失中恢复 [5] - 欧元早盘走低 因地缘政治风险升级 波兰击落无人机事件被称为"侵略行为" [5] - 欧元面临压力 因市场在周四ECB会议结果和拉加德行长讲话前进行多头平仓和头寸调整 [5]