[角色] 你是一名拥有10年投资银行从业经验的资深研究分析师，专门负责上市公司、行业研究。你擅长解读公司财报、行业动态、宏观市场，发现潜在的投资机会和风险。 [任务] 你需要仔细研读一份上市公司或者行业研究的电话会议记录，请阅读全文，一步一步思考，总结全文列出关键要点，不要错过任何信息，包括： * 纪要涉及的行业或者公司 * 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 * 其他重要但是可能被忽略的内容 如果没有相关内容，请跳过这一部分，进行其他的部分。 总结时要全面、详细、尽可能覆盖全部的内容、不遗漏重点,并根据上述方面对内容进行分组。 要引用原文数字数据和百分比变化,注意单位换算(billion=十亿,million=百万,thousand=千)。 [注意事项] 1) 使用中文,不要出现句号 2) 采用markdown格式 3) 不使用第一人称,以"公司"、"行业"代替 4) 只输出关于公司和行业的内容 5) 在每一个关键点后用[序号]形式引用原文档id 6) 一个[序号]只应该包含一个数字，不能包含多个，如果多个就用[序号][序号]分开写，不要写成 [序号-序号] 7) 每个关键要点后边的 [序号] 不要超过 3 个 Content: --------- <doc id='1'>ab 7 September 2025</doc> <doc id='2'>First Read Global Oil Fundamentals OPEC+ to push further OPEC+ partners to keep raising production in October The eight OPEC+ members carrying out the second tranche of voluntary cuts of 1.65Mb/ d announced on Sunday that they will raise oil production by 137kb/d in October (link). This will continue the production increases after the group fully unwinds the previous 2.2Mb/d voluntary cuts by the end of September, in only six months. The October run rate implies a return of 1.65Mb/d over one year but the group emphasised that any further adjustment remains contingent on evolving market conditions. The oil price had already dropped last week on reports that the group would continue raising production (link), limiting the immediate impact, but we would still expect the decision to weigh on prices. The next meeting is scheduled for 5 October.</doc> <doc id='3'>Actual production increase likely to be even lower than for the first tranche Even more than for the first tranche of production cuts, we expect the actual production increase from this second tranche to fall short of the headline number. We estimate that only around 40% of the 1.65Mb/d is likely to materialise, compared to a ~60% increase for the previous 2.2Mb/d. We expect the bulk of this increase to be driven by Saudi Arabia (500kb/d) and the UAE (144kb/d). This is due to a combination of countries already producing above target and in some cases limited ability to increase production further. See Figure 2 for full breakdown of the 1.65Mb/d.</doc> <doc id='4'>Still, even larger surplus looms, higher risk of <$60/bbl This weekend's announcement reinforces our caution on oil prices near-term (UBSe $62/ bbl Brent in 4Q25/1Q26). We were already projecting much larger surpluses in the oil market over the next few months in our last monthly update: 1.2Mb/d in 4Q25 and 2.4Mb/d in 1Q26, before the October increase. If OPEC+ partners continue at this pace over the next few months, the surplus would rise to ~2.7Mb/d. This has the potential to bring prices below our base case and push Brent sub-$60/bbl in our view. The decision could prove to be supportive in the longer term as it could show that real spare capacity within the group is more limited now and reduce non-OPEC supply growth.</doc> <doc id='5'>Equities Global Oil Companies, Major Henri Patricot, CFA Analyst henri.patricot@ubs.com +33-14-888 3033 Nayoung Kim Analyst nayoung.kim@ubs.com +44-20-7568 4010 Joshua Stone Analyst joshua.stone@ubs.com +44-20-7901 5588 Josh Silverstein Analyst josh.silverstein@ubs.com +1-212-713 3513 Tom Allen Analyst tom.allen@ubs.com +61-3-9242 6237 Tasso Vasconcellos Analyst tasso.vasconcellos@ubs.com +55-11-2767 6683 This report has been prepared by UBS Europe SE. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 5. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.</doc> <doc id='6'>-500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jul-26 Oct-26 Russia Oman Kazakhstan UAE Saudi Arabia Kuwait Iraq Algeria Cumulative increase UBSe cumulative increase Cumulative increase without compensation UBSe vs. March target level</doc> <doc id='7'>Figure 1: Planned gradual return of the voluntary cuts (cumulative increase, kb/d)</doc> <doc id='8'>Source: OPEC, UBS. Note: includes the 300kb/d UAE quota increase and the announced October 2025 increase, but no increase beyond October 2025.</doc> <doc id='9'>| Figure 2: Split of the October increase and second tranche of voluntary cuts | | --- | | kb/d | October increase | Share of the 1.65Mb/d cuts | | --- | --- | --- | | Saudi Arabia | 42 | 500 | | UAE | 12 | 144 | | Russia | 42 | 500 | | Iraq | 17 | 211 | | Kuwait | 11 | 128 | | Kazakhstan | 6 | 78 | | Algeria | 4 | 48 | | Oman | 3 | 40 | | | 137 | 1649 | Source: OPEC.</doc> <doc id='10'>Figure 3: Quarterly global oil supply and demand balance (Mb/d)</doc> <doc id='11'>98 100 102 104 106 108 110 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2Q22 4Q22 2Q23 4Q23 2Q24 4Q24 2Q25 4Q25E 2Q26E 4Q26E Oil demand/supply balance (Mb/d) Stock changes (Mb/d) Implied over/ (under) supply Demand Supply</doc> <doc id='12'>Source: IEA, UBSe.</doc> <doc id='13'>-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Iraq Kazakhstan Russia</doc> <doc id='14'>Figure 4: Production gap to targets for the 3 OPEC+ members due to implement compensation plans, based on OPEC secondary sources (kb/d) Source: OPEC, UBS.</doc> <doc id='15'>Valuation Method and Risk Statement In history, oil prices have proved consistently unpredictable because so many political, geological, and economic trends and events affect the supply of and demand for oil. Oil prices are extremely volatile in the short, medium and long term, as they are frequently affected by inherently unpredictable events, including natural disasters.</doc> <doc id='16'>Required Disclosures This document has been prepared by UBS Europe SE, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".</doc> <doc id='17'>For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product; historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. 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A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research team on the email above.</doc> <doc id='18'>Analyst Certification: Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to UBS, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report.</doc> <doc id='19'>| 12-Month Rating | Definition | Coverage1 | IB Services2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Buy | FSR is > 6% above the MRA. | 52% | | 22% | | Neutral | FSR is between -6% and 6% of the MRA. | 41% | | 20% | | Sell | FSR is > 6% below the MRA. | 8% | | 22% | | Short-Term Rating | Definition | Coverage3 | IB Services4 | | | Buy | Stock price expected to rise within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event. | <1% | | <1% | | Sell | Stock price expected to fall within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event. | <1% | | <1% |</doc> <doc id='20'>UBS Global Research: Global Equity Rating Definitions</doc> <doc id='21'>Source: UBS. Rating allocations are as of 30 June 2025. 1:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the 12-month rating category. 2:Percentage of companies within the 12-month rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months. 3:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the Short-Term rating category.</doc> <doc id='22'>4:Percentage of companies within the Short-Term rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months.</doc> <doc id='23'>KEY DEFINITIONS:Forecast Stock Return (FSR) is defined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over the next 12 months. In some cases, this yield may be based on accrued dividends. Market Return Assumption (MRA) is defined as the one-year local market interest rate plus 5% (a proxy for, and not a forecast of, the equity risk premium). 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As a result, stocks deemed to be very high or low risk may be subject to higher or lower bands as they relate to the rating. When such exceptions apply, they will be identified in the Company Disclosures table in the relevant research piece.</doc> <doc id='25'>Research analysts contributing to this report who are employed by any non-US affiliate of UBS Securities LLC are not registered/ qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such analysts may not be associated persons of UBS Securities LLC and therefore are not subject to the FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. 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