[角色] 你是一名拥有10年投资银行从业经验的资深研究分析师，专门负责上市公司、行业研究。你擅长解读公司财报、行业动态、宏观市场，发现潜在的投资机会和风险。 [任务] 你需要仔细研读一份上市公司或者行业研究的电话会议记录，请阅读全文，一步一步思考，总结全文列出关键要点，不要错过任何信息，包括： * 纪要涉及的行业或者公司 * 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 * 其他重要但是可能被忽略的内容 如果没有相关内容，请跳过这一部分，进行其他的部分。 总结时要全面、详细、尽可能覆盖全部的内容、不遗漏重点,并根据上述方面对内容进行分组。 要引用原文数字数据和百分比变化,注意单位换算(billion=十亿,million=百万,thousand=千)。 [注意事项] 1) 使用中文,不要出现句号 2) 采用markdown格式 3) 不使用第一人称,以"公司"、"行业"代替 4) 只输出关于公司和行业的内容 5) 在每一个关键点后用[序号]形式引用原文档id 6) 一个[序号]只应该包含一个数字，不能包含多个，如果多个就用[序号][序号]分开写，不要写成 [序号-序号] 7) 每个关键要点后边的 [序号] 不要超过 3 个 Content: --------- <doc id='1'>16 Sep 2025 11:43:21 ET │ 12 pages China OTAs Gov't Measures to Boost Travel Consumption and Upcoming Holiday Demand Likely Decent CITI'S TAKE The Ministry of Commerce and other departments jointly issued Several Policies on Expanding Service Consumption. In the document, we see attracting more inbound visitors and optimizing students' holiday arrangements directly related to travel industry, especially for optimizing holiday arrangement which includes exploring establishment of spring and autumn vacations for primary and secondary schools students with shorter winter and summer vacation, and this could decently enhance frequency of long-haul family travel if implemented. Also, we see travel demand likely being decent during the upcoming Golden Week, which will be a 8-day holiday, 1 more day than in 2024, likely benefiting long-haul and outbound travel more. China State Railway Group estimated railway passenger throughput could reach 219mn during the 12-day transportation period with daily average at 18.25mn vs. total of 177mn and daily average of 17.7mn during last year's 10-day transportation period. Maintain Buy on TCOM and Tongcheng.</doc> <doc id='2'>Details of the latest document – On 16 Sep, the Ministry of Commerce and other departments jointly issued the Several Policies on Expanding Service Consumption, which includes 5 areas and 19 detailed measures. Related to the travel industry, the document encourages attracting more international visitors by expanding visa-free policies and improving payment conveniences, exploring adding spring and autumn vacations for primary and secondary school students while shortening summer and winter vacations, adjusting the academic calendar without reducing total vacation days, extending operating hours of museums and scenic spots, promoting introducing int'l sports events and host local sports events, and providing consumption credit supports.</doc> <doc id='3'>Govt's estimates on railway passenger throughput during upcoming holiday – Per People's Daily on 16 Sep, China State Railway Group estimated railway passenger throughput could reach 219mn during the 12-day transportation period from 29 Sep to 10 Oct (ie, two days before the holiday, the 8-day holiday, and two days after the holiday) with average daily passenger throughput at 18.25mn, higher than the daily average of 17.74mn (or total 177mn) during last year's 10-day transportation period. That said, although daily average railway passenger throughput was estimated to increase 3%, we think a 24% yoy increase in total passenger throughput also matters since the longer holiday could make the daily average number dilute the real increase in the number of travelers.</doc> <doc id='4'>Preliminary booking data from OTA platforms – Qunar: Qunar has seen more diversified travel destination and earlier bookings this year given the longer holiday Brian GongAC +852-2501-2747 brian.gong@citi.com Alicia Yap, CFA +852-2501-2773 alicia.yap@citi.com See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Certain products (not inconsistent with the author's published research) are available only on Citi's portals.</doc> <doc id='5'>with 30% yoy growth on domestic travel willingness and >40% yoy growth on outbound travel willingness (link, STCN, 16-Sep). Tongcheng: With train tickets for 29 Sep available for sale on 15 Sep, lots of tickets in higher-tier cities have been sold out (link, JFdaily, 15-Sep). Fliggy: Fliggy has seen average booking volume per user on flights, and train and car rentals were up ~4.3% yoy (link, JFdaily, 15-Sep).</doc> <doc id='6'>More long-haul travel this year – Per Ctrip data, top destinations during 2024 Golden Week were Japan, Thailand, South Korea, and Malaysia. Qunar's data show this year's top destinations remain the same but also see increasing long-haul outbound travel destinations like Australia and Europe. With a longer holiday this year, we expect more long-haul travel for the domestic market during the Golden Week as well, which could benefit OTAs more.</doc> <doc id='7'>Tongcheng Travel Holdings (0780.HK; HK$22.98; 1; 16 Sep 25; 16:10) Valuation We believe PE is appropriate to value Tongcheng to capture strong growth momentum and is consistent with our valuation methodology for its peers. Our target price of HK$28 is based on 16x non-IFRS 2026E EPS, set at a discount to the historical average of 21x before the pandemic given a slower revs growth profile.</doc> <doc id='8'>Risks Key risks that may prevent the share price from reaching our target price include: 1) greater-than-expected competition from OTA peers or other traveling booking channels; 2) heavy reliance on hotel supply from Trip.com; 3) heavy reliance on Tencent's platforms; and 4) worsening macro.</doc> <doc id='9'>Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM.O; US$74.12; 1; 15 Sep 25; 16:00) Valuation Our target price of US$85 for Trip.com is based on SOTP. We value the core business at ~US$78/sh based on a 2026E P/E of 20x, applying a 20% premium to the average P/E of other vertical leaders given TCOM's decent growth momentum with structural overseas expansion story. We apply the target multiple to TCOM's 2026E adj. earnings excluding the profits from equity investments. We value the major equity investments at ~US$7/sh based on the market caps of the listed names. We employ an SOTP approach to better factor in the value of the investments.</doc> <doc id='10'>Risks Downside risks that could prevent the shares from reaching our target price include: 1) a further softening of the China macro environment that affects travel demand; 2) travel demand taking longer than expected to recover; 3) spending and margins turning worse than expected; 4) an intensification of domestic competition; and 5) any significant new outbreaks of Covid-19 or other epidemics.</doc> <doc id='11'>If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788</doc> <doc id='12'>Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designated by "AC" in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple AC analysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than (a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solely with respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts or rating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the report for which they are responsible: (1) that the views expressed therein accurately reflect their personal views about each issuer and security referenced and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to Citigroup Global markets Inc. and its affiliates; and (2) no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in this report.</doc> <doc id='13'>IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES</doc> <doc id='16'>The Firm has made a market in the publicly traded equity securities of Tongcheng Travel Holdings Ltd on at least one occasion since 1 Jan 2024. The Firm has made a market in the publicly traded equity securities of Trip.com Group Ltd on at least one occasion since 1 Jan 2024.</doc> <doc id='17'>Citigroup Global Markets Inc. owns a position of 1 million USD or more in the debt securities of Trip.com Group Ltd. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from Tongcheng Travel Holdings,Trip.com Group Ltd in the past 12 months.</doc> <doc id='18'>Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Trip.com Group Ltd.</doc> <doc id='19'>Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, non-securities-related: Tongcheng Travel Holdings,Trip.com Group Ltd. Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and/or its affiliates has a significant financial interest in relation to Trip.com Group Ltd. (For an explanation of the determination of significant financial interest, please refer to the policy for managing conflicts of interest which can be found at www.citiVelocity.com.) Analysts' compensation is determined by Citi Research management and Citigroup's senior management and is based upon activities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates (the "Firm"). Compensation is not linked to specific transactions or recommendations. Like all Firm employees, analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall Firm profitability which includes investment banking, sales and trading, and principal trading revenues. One factor in equity research analyst compensation is arranging corporate access events between institutional clients and the management teams of covered companies. Typically, company management is more likely to participate when the analyst has a positive view of the company.</doc> <doc id='20'>For financial instruments recommended in the Product in which the Firm is not a market maker, the Firm is a liquidity provider in such financial instruments (and any underlying instruments) and may act as principal in connection with transactions in such instruments. The Firm is a regular issuer of traded financial instruments linked to securities that may have been recommended in the Product. The Firm regularly trades in the securities of the issuer(s) discussed in the Product. The Firm may engage in securities transactions in a manner inconsistent with the Product and, with respect to securities covered by the Product, will buy or sell from customers on a principal basis.</doc> <doc id='21'>The Firm is a market maker in the publicly traded equity securities of Tongcheng Travel Holdings,Trip.com Group Ltd. Unless stated otherwise neither the Research Analyst nor any member of their team has viewed the material operations of the Companies for which an investment view has been provided within the past 12 months.</doc> <doc id='22'>For important disclosures (including copies of historical disclosures) regarding the companies that are the subject of this Citi Research product ("the Product"), please contact Citi Research, 388 Greenwich Street, 6th Floor, New York, NY, 10013, Attention: Legal/Compliance [E6WYB6412478]. In addition, the same important disclosures, with the exception of the Valuation and Risk assessments and historical disclosures, are contained on the Firm's disclosure website at https://www.citivelocity.com/cvr/eppublic/citi_research_disclosures. Valuation and Risk assessments can be found in the text of the most recent research note/report regarding the subject company. Pursuant to the Market Abuse Regulation a history of all Citi Research recommendations published during the preceding 12-month period can be accessed via Citi Velocity (https://www.citivelocity.com/cv2) or your standard distribution portal. Historical disclosures (for up to the past three years) will be provided upon request.</doc> <doc id='23'>Citi Research Equity Ratings Distribution | | | 12 Month Rating | | | Catalyst Watch | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Data current as of 01 Jul 2025 | Buy | Hold | Sell | Buy | Hold | Sell | | Citi Research Global Fundamental Coverage (Neutral=Hold) | 58% | 32% | 9% | 36% | 47% | 17% | | % of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients | 36% | 39% | 25% | 39% | 34% | 35% | Guide to Citi Research Fundamental Research Investment Ratings: Citi Research stock recommendations include an investment rating and an optional risk rating to highlight high risk stocks. 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