消费者与商业情绪 - 消费者和商业情绪在春季大幅下降 随后有所回升但仍低于年初水平 [1] - 劳动力市场的工人供需均显著放缓 这是不寻常且具有挑战性的发展 [1] 劳动力市场状况 - 8月失业率微升至4.3% 过去一年保持相对稳定低位 [1] - 过去三个月雇主平均每月仅增加29,000个岗位 夏季 payroll 就业增长大幅放缓 [1] - 当前就业创造速度低于维持失业率稳定所需的收支平衡率 [1] - 职位空缺与失业比率保持在1附近 多项职位空缺指标基本稳定 [1] - 初次申请失业保险人数保持稳定 未出现下降趋势 [1] 通货膨胀指标 - PCE价格指数在截至8月的12个月内上涨2.7% 高于2024年8月的2.3% [1] - 核心PCE价格指数上月上涨2.9% 同样高于去年同期水平 [1] - 商品价格推动通胀回升 主要反映关税上涨而非广泛价格压力 [2] - 服务业通胀持续放缓 包括住房服务领域 [2] - 短期通胀预期指标因关税消息整体上升 [2] 货币政策立场 - 联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4%-4.25% [3] - 当前政策立场仍保持适度限制性 为应对潜在经济变化做好准备 [3] - 政策制定基于最新数据 不断变化的前景和风险平衡 而非预设路线 [3] 人工智能对经济的影响 - 生成式AI具有新兴技术特征 可能对经济和社会产生重要影响 [9] - 企业机构正在试验AI工具的应用 但仍处于早期阶段 [9] - 历史表明技术创新会提高生产率并创造新工作岗位 但需要时间 [9] - 当前证据显示AI对招聘率影响有限 尚未成为主要因素 [11] - 技术专家认为AI与其他技术浪潮没有本质区别 [12] 劳动力市场结构变化 - 全国总体招聘率处于极低水平 解雇率同样保持低位 [13] - 企业因政策不确定性暂停招聘和资本支出计划 [13][18] - 移民政策变化导致劳动力供给减少 移民对劳动力增长的贡献接近零 [18] - 教育水平与技术发展的匹配程度影响收入不平等状况 [13] 关税政策影响 - 关税对通胀的直接影响约为0.3-0.4个百分点 占核心PCE通胀2.9%中的一部分 [16] - 成本主要由进口商和零售商承担 向消费者的传导有限且延迟 [16] - 关税影响可能相对短暂 表现为价格水平的一次性调整 [2] 教育技术关系 - 美国教育水平自1970年代停滞不前 与技术发展不匹配导致不平等加剧 [13] - 掌握技术技能的毕业生前景良好 缺乏相关技能者就业选择受限 [13] - 教育系统质量决定国家竞争力 是长期经济发展的关键因素 [14]

Sweden’s Volvo Cars (VOLCAR-B.ST) is expanding production at its US plant in a move to localize production, deflect tariffs, and build more cars that appeal to buyers in one of its biggest markets. Volvo, wholly owned by China’s Geely, announced on Tuesday that it would bring a fourth vehicle to its production facility located in Ridgeville, S.C. — a next-generation hybrid model designed to meet the “specific demands” of the US market. Volvo offered no details of the new vehicle, but others have surmised ...

Key Takeaways lululemon's Q2 gross margin fell 110 bps y/y to 58.5% on tariffs and higher-than-expected markdowns.Revenues of $2.53B missed estimates, with flat U.S. sales and 3% comps decline offset by global gains.FY25 outlook cut, with gross margin expected to decline 300 bps amid intensifying tariff headwinds.Tariffs have emerged as the biggest profitability drag for lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) , reshaping its margin profile in fiscal 2025. The removal of the U.S. de minimis exemption, which had pre ...

The worst damage to the U.S. economy from the trade wars might be over, but businesses are still adjusting to higher tariff-related costs and a slowdown in customer demand that's causing them to cut back on hiring. ...

By Lucia Mutikani WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. business activity slowed for a second straight month in September, and though firms complained about tariffs increasing costs they were not raising prices for their goods and services, which bodes well for the inflation outlook. The survey from S&P Global on Tuesday suggested that businesses were absorbing most of the import duties and supported some economists' argument that tariffs would not have a lasting impact on inflation. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome ...

Welcome to the program. So we've got a range of topics to work through. First of all, given the Federal Reserve and Chair Jay Powell is in focus later on this afternoon, a man who, of course, you know well, we'd love your reaction to the latest pressure on the Federal Reserve and the daylight, the division within the committee right now and the daylight between the Governor Meyer and coming out of the White House and everybody else.David, what's your reaction to that as it builds through the summer and as w ...

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee expressed caution Tuesday about lowering interest rates as the U.S. economy grapples with the forces of slower growth and a weaker labor market.While he joined the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee last week in voting to cut the central bank's key borrowing rate, he told CNBC that further moves would depend on economic progress."I'm OK with moving to be in a better spot, and I think eventually, at a gradual pace, rates can come down a fair amount if ...

Investors await earnings from AutoZone and Micron Technology to gauge the impact of tariffs and a slowing labor market. ...

The U.S. government’s renewed embrace of tariffs may be slowing deficits at the margins, but it does little to alter the country’s long-term debt trajectory, according to macro strategist Lyn Alden. Speaking with Scott Melker, host of TheStreet Roundtable, Alden described tariffs as the largest tax increase in decades, one that policymakers have been able to push through by calling it a national emergency. “One of the levers that does somewhat slow it are the tariffs,” Alden explained. “That basically rep ...

The U.S. government is currently collecting tariff revenues at an annualized pace of roughly $350 billion, a “significant” amount, according to Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. In his typical style, one of brevity and striking charts, Slok added that the figure equates to roughly 18% of annual household income tax payments, underscoring that tariffs are not a marginal tool but a significant revenue source shaping America’s economic and trade landscape. Tariffs—essentially taxes i ...