The “Lock-in Effect” and Mortgage Rates: Update on Unwinding a Phenomenon that Wrecked the Housing Market
Wolfstreet·2025-09-29 23:30
This is going to take a long time to get worked out. The share of below-3% mortgages outstanding declined in Q2 to 20.4% of all mortgages outstanding, the smallest share since Q2 2021 (red in the chart), according to data by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The share has been shrinking since the peak in Q1 2022, but the pace has been very slow: Just 4.2 percentage points in three years. The shrinking share of these ultra-low-rate mortgages documents the slow exit of homeowners and investors from the “loc ...